SAO PAULO: Brazilian soyabean farmers are expected to reap 153 million metric tons of soyabeans in the 2023/24 cycle, 5 million tons below a previous forecast, reflecting the struggle of growers in top farm state Mato Grosso amid an El Niño-related drought.

According to analysts at Itau BBA on Wednesday, weather maps had indicated good rainfall and showers well distributed in the center of Brazil in the beginning of December.

However, as the days went by, rainfall once again was below average over most of the country, which led to the latest downward revision of the national soyabean crop.

Itau BBA believes Brazil’s soya output will be lower than last season’s production of 154.6 million tons as estimated by crop agency Conab, as a result of problems in Mato Grosso.

“We reduced yield for Mato Grosso crops, with a drop around 20% in relation to [the state’s yield] potential,” said Itau BBA analysts, who now project Mato Grosso’s soya output below 40 millions of tons. Citing historical data from Conab, Itau BBA also said Mato Grosso’s sharpest percentage drop in yield was 11% for the 1989/90 harvest. “If we are correct, this should be the worst year in history for the oilseed in the state,” Itau BBA analysts wrote.

After several consecutive months with temperatures above average, rainfall in the first half of December failed improve in Brazil, Itau BBA analysts said of the world’s biggest soyabean supplier.

December also saw the occurrence of yet another heat wave, not the first in the grain season that kicked off the September, which brought temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius in several areas of the country, Itau BBA analysts pointed out.