MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices continued to fall last week amid weakening global prices and some growth in shipments, analysts said.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery late March to early was $219 a metric ton, down $5 from the previous week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported.

The Sovecon agriculture consultancy pegged the same class of wheat at $218-224 a ton FOB, compared with $224-230 a week ago.

Analysts have raised their forecasts for the Russian harvest in 2024 last week. IKAR also estimated grain exports at 70 million tons, including more than 52 million tons of wheat.

Amid record stockpiles in the country, the Agriculture Ministry has proposed to increase the export quota, which will be in effect until the end of this season, by 4 million tons to 28 million tons.

Russia exported 1.20 million tons of grain last week, up from 0.86 million tons the previous week. The exports included 1.12 million tons of wheat (0.72 million tons a week ago), Sovecon wrote, citing data from ports.

The consultancy raised its estimate of wheat exports in February by 0.3 million ton to 3.3 million tons, comparing to 3.0 million tons a year earlier.

“In February, we will not return the rates (of exports) with which we started the season. Both weather and commercial conditions are preventing this,” Arkady Zlochevsky, head of the Russian Grain Union, said at a briefing, noting the negative impact of an unpublished restriction from the Agriculture Ministry on the minimum export price.

Russian wheat prices are higher than competitors’ offers, as demonstrated last week by the Egyptian GASC tender, which bought 180,000 tons of Ukrainian and Romanian wheat.

“All Russian offers were submitted at $245 FOB (180-day LC) which matches well with the new unofficial “price floor” of $235”, Sovecon wrote in the weekly note.