Spain sold more short-term debt than planned on Tuesday at slightly lower rates than a month ago, attracting investors who traded on expectations that a sovereign aid request could be near. Ratings agency Standard & Poor's cut Spain's debt rating to one notch above junk on Friday, saying Madrid's reluctance to ask for the rescue funds that would clear the way for the ECB to buy its bonds could drag on the new rating, which it kept on negative outlook.
"While Spain doesn't appear to be in any rush to pull the (aid) trigger, officials are drip-feeding the markets enough hope," Jo Tomkins, an analyst at consultancy 4Cast, said in explanation of Tuesday's relatively strong showing. The treasury sold 4.9 billion euros ($6.3 billion) of 12- and 18-month debt, beating the targeted upper range of 4.5 billion euros and with the yield on the longer paper dipping from September's auction to just above 3 percent.
Tomkins said, the same strategy could help shore up demand at a more critical bond sale on Thursday, when up to 4.5 billion euros of debt maturing in 2015, 2016 and 2022 goes on sale. Spain is the focus of investor unease about the almost 3-year-old euro zone debt crisis, with concerns the government in Madrid might lose control of the country's finances pushing its debt premiums to unsustainable levels in July.
It is widely expected to apply for sovereign aid on top of a European package worth up to 100 billion euro package that it has already been granted for its ailing banking sector. Conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has implemented spending cuts and tax hikes worth around 65 billion euros, or some 7 percent of gross domestic product, through to end-2014, prompting mass street protests and fuelling concerns the country's economic slump will worsen.
Spain's economy has been in recession or at a standstill since a decade-long property bubble burst in 2008 and crippled the banking sector, and unemployment affecting almost one in four workers has battered consumer confidence. Seven in ten unemployed Spaniards think they have little or no chance of finding a job over the next year, according to a study by research group GfK published on Tuesday.
But authorities in the euro zone's fourth largest economy are comfortable delaying an aid request until they have more details on the scope and conditions of the European Central Bank bond-buying programme, analysts and sources say. Euro zone sources told Reuters last week that Spain could ask for financial aid in November. The premium investors demand to hold Spanish over German 10-year debt was steady on the day, at around 434 basis points, a long way from over 650 bps in July.
But that spread seems unlikely to drop significantly. 4Cast's Tomkins said investors would remain cautious until a second credit agency, Moody's, which also rates Spain just one step above non-investment grade, announces the results of a review of that rating some time this month. Tuesday's sale saw the treasury sell 3.4 billion euros of the 12-month bill for an average yield of 2.823 percent compared to 2.835 percent in September. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.7 after 2 in September. The 18-month bill had an average yield of 3.022 percent at auction on Tuesday down slightly from 3.072 percent last month. The Treasury sold 1.5 billion euros of the bill, which was 3 times subscribed after 3.6 times at the previous sale.