Indian rupee likely to drop to record low on escalating Middle East tensions

19 Apr, 2024

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to open at a lifetime low against the US dollar on Friday, in the wake of a jump in oil prices and risk aversion following a media report that Israeli missiles struck Iran.

Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at 83.62-83.64 to the dollar, compared with its previous close of 83.5375.

Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran, ABC News reported, citing a US official.

This comes days after Iran’s drone strike on Israel in response to an attack at the Iranian embassy in Syria.

Iran’s Fars news agency said an explosion were heard at an airport in the Iranian city of Isafahan, but the cause was not immediately known.

Indian rupee pressured by Fed rate outlook, helped by dip in oil prices

Brent crude climbed more 4% to climb past $90 a barrel, US equity futures and Asian shares slumped, while safe haven demand propped up the dollar and US Treasuries.

“Two things will be key today - how the news flow on the Israel strikes develops and how aggressive will RBI want to intervene in the current situation,” an fx trader at a bank said.

The Reserve Bank of India has been intervening to limit rupee’s losses, which like other Asian currencies, has been pressured by worries over the Middle East and the likelihood that US interest rates will remain higher for longer.

Investors have scaled down the number of rate cuts the Fed will deliver this year.

On Thursday, New York Fed President John Williams became the latest official to say that there was no need to rush rate cuts.

DBS Bank said it is revisiting its projections on Fed rate cuts this year to 50 basis points, instead of 100 bps previously.

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