MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices decreased slightly last week amid active shipments and an expansion of the export quota for Russian grain, although dry weather began to affect harvest forecasts.
The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in late May-early June was $208 a metric ton, down from $210 a metric ton the previous week.
The head of the IKAR agriculture consultancy, Dmitry Rylko, linked the price drop to the expectation of higher export supplies after the introduction of the additional grain quota.
Russia has introduced an additional quota of 5 million tonnes of wheat and meslin, rye, barley and maize to the quota of 24 million tonnes in force from Feb. 15 to June 30, 2024 for exports.
The Sovecon agriculture consultancy pegged the same class of wheat unchanged at $210 to $212 a ton FOB.
Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, saw its overseas supplies decline to 1.25 million tons of grain last week from 1.31 million tons the previous week. The exports included 1.07 million tons of wheat, down from 1.14 million tons a week earlier, Sovecon wrote, citing port data.
Sovecon estimates wheat exports in April at a record-high 4.6 million metric tons, compared with 4.4 million tons a year ago.
IKAR has raised its Russian 2023/2024 wheat export forecast to 53 million metric tons from 52 million tons against the backdrop of the high pace of exports.
As of April 12, farmers had seeded 2.0 million hectares of grains compared to 1.8 million hectares in the same period in 2023. That included 0.3 million hectares of spring wheat, the same as last year, Sovecon wrote.
The major Russian wheat regions were dry and hot last week, the agency noted. “Weather conditions are deteriorating for the new crop. Some rains are predicted in early May but we are not sure that it will be enough to improve crop conditions in the south”.
Sovecon downgraded its 2024 wheat crop forecast last week by 1 million metric tons to 93 million metric tons due to the worsening weather conditions.