DUBAI: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash upsets the plans of hardliners who wanted him to succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and will stir rivalries in their camp over who will take over the Islamic Republic when he dies.
A protege of Khamenei who rose through the ranks of Iran’s theocracy, Raisi, 63, was widely seen as a leading candidate to take over from the 85-year-old Supreme Leader - though it was far from being a foregone conclusion in Iran’s opaque politics.
His rise to the presidency was part of a consolidation of power in the hands of hardliners dedicated to shoring up the pillars of the Islamic Republic against the risks posed by dissent at home and powerful enemies in a turbulent region.
Raisi had enjoyed staunch backing from Khamenei, who had himself held the position of president before he became Supreme Leader in 1989 following the death of the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
The Supreme Leader holds ultimate power in Iran, acting as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and deciding on the direction of foreign policy, defined largely by confrontation with the United States and Israel.
While Khamenei has not endorsed a successor, Iran watchers say Raisi was one of the two names most often mentioned, the second being Khamenei’s second son, Mojtaba, who is widely believed to wield influence behind the scenes.
Raisi, backed by a group that wanted to see him become Supreme Leader, clearly wanted the role, said Vali Nasr, professor of Middle East Studies and International Affairs at John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
“Now they don’t have a candidate, and that opens the door for other factions or other figures to emerge as serious contenders,” he said.
For Raisi, a mid-ranking Shi’ite cleric, the presidency had been a vehicle to reach the supreme leadership. “There’s no other candidate right now (with) that kind of a platform and that’s why the presidential elections in Iran, however they unfold, will be the first decider about what comes next,” Nasr said.
Raisi’s views echoed Khamenei’s on every major topic and he enacted the leader’s policies aimed at entrenching clerical power, cracking down on opponents, and adopting a tough line on foreign policy issues such as the nuclear talks with Washington, two Iranian insiders said.
The hardliners maintained their grip in a parliamentary election held in March, but turnout sunk to the lowest level since the revolution.