TOKYO: Asian stocks drifted lower while the dollar held firm on Tuesday as investors awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting to gauge the timing and extent of possible interest rate cuts this year.
Gold eased back from Monday’s all-time peak, while crude oil declined on worries of US interest rates staying high for longer as Fed officials maintained a cautious view on a recent easing of inflation.
Cryptocurrencies ether and bitcoin climbed to fresh six-week peaks amid speculation that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve a spot ether exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Markets currently factor in about 41 basis points of Fed rate reductions this year, with a quarter-point cut fully priced in for November.
Traders rushed to rebuild easing bets after data earlier this month showed consumer price pressures mitigated in April, following a string of three months of upside surprises at the start of the year.
Asian stocks ease on uncertainty over timing of US rate cuts
Even so, Fed officials are reluctant to declare inflation is coming under control, with Vice Chair Philip Jefferson saying on Monday that it was too early to tell if the slowdown is “long lasting,” and Vice Chair Michael Barr saying restrictive policy needs more time.
Minutes of the last Fed meeting due on Wednesday could provide valuable insight into the future policy path, although the deliberations predate last week’s softer CPI reading.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.9%, weighed down by the Hang Seng’s 1.9% pullback from Monday’s multi-month peak.
Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei tracked overnight gains for the Nasdaq to a record high, before reversing course to trade 0.1% lower. Nasdaq futures inched 0.06% lower. S&P 500 futures were flat after Monday’s 0.1% gain.
“Market sentiment remains relatively robust, with implied volatility low, supported by greater confidence in US rate cuts this year,” Kyle Rodda, senior markets analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a note.
At the same time, record highs for metals such as gold and copper “is being pointed to as a signal economic activity is improving globally, and that may be a factor keeping inflation sticky,” Rodda said.
Gold eased 0.3% to about $2,417 per ounce, after pushing to the cusp of $2,450 for the first time overnight.
The greenback held its ground against major peers, with the dollar index flat at 104.62 after rebounding from a five-week trough of 104.07 reached on Thursday.
The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.4433%, after ticking up 1.7 basis points on Monday.
Brent crude futures declined 0.7% to $83.17 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased 0.7% to $79.22.
Meanwhile, the standout performers of Monday climbed to fresh highs, as traders snapped up cryptocurrencies following a report that the SEC had abruptly asked exchanges that want to trade ether ETFs to update regulatory filings, boosting bets that approval could come this week.
Bitcoin climbed as high as $71,957 and ether jumped to $3,720.80, both hitting levels not seen since April 9.
“Speculation around the ether ETF has certainly played its part in the move, throwing fuel on the crypto bull market bonfire that had reignited after last week’s cooler US CPI data,” said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.
Sycamore expects bitcoin to retest the all-time high at $73,803.25 in coming days before making a push for $80,000.