‘achi kari sarkar ne, buri kari qudrat ne’ (translation: all that’s good is thanks to the State, all that’s bad, is due to nature). That, in short, has been the summary of Pakistan’s national approach to agriculture, whether the party in power drapes itself in the slogans of tabdeeli, stability, or khaki shades. They say every crisis is an opportunity, and Pakistan’s policymakers are becoming particularly adroit at using the climate crisis to take credit for doing absolutely nothing.
From the Agriculture Emergency program, Agri-Transformation Plan, Kissan Cards, Green Pakistan (Corporate) Initiative, and Agriculture under CPEC 2.0, to tech companies with banking licenses now branching out into crop extension services under the finance ministry’s stewardship, the Pakistani state seems to be caught up in a constant battle for revival of agriculture. Every time farming output lifts up, it is due to the tireless efforts of the state; every time it collapses, it is due to an Act of God. (For more, read “An agri-revival under PTI”, published on March 30, 2022“)
Yes, at 6.25 percent, agi-GDP growth is the highest since 2004-05. Yes, at 24 percent share of national GDP, agriculture’s contribution to the economy is at its highest in a decade. But neither the finance ministry could name a single policy intervention undertaken during the outgoing year that was responsible for the historic growth spurt, nor does the Survey list any man-made actions that helped bring us here. As one foreign correspondent noted during the presser – the market crash wrought by the last-minute revision in wheat procurement policy has left farmers across the country without cash to invest in inputs for the ongoing kharif season. So much, for an agri-based economic revival.
Of course, explanations for growth are aplenty. From low base effect due to flood year 2022-23, to alluvial soils post-flood, many concessions are made to explain path-divergent growth and multiple bumper crops. But deep in the 500 pages of the Survey document, one finds the single biggest driver of crop output volatility over the last two years: a 28 percent year-on-year increase in surface water availability from the Indus River canal irrigation system during FY24; and an increase of 43 percent from lowest kharif season water availability during FY23. With 20 million acre-feet more water surface water in the system, this is the single largest change in surface water availability in any given year since at least the turn of the century.
Like any other government, not only were the surrogates of the hybrid system keen to take credit for this turnaround – perhaps they helped make more water available, they also seemed to think that the strong and durable revival in agriculture would provide the underpinnings for sustainable economic growth in years to come.
Never mind that the increasing frequency of extreme weather events means fate can turn tables against us just as quickly as it had tilted them in our favor. Nevermind, that the contrasting performances of agriculture versus manufacturing and services sectors during the outgoing economic year proved wrong the mirage that is an agri-growth multiplier – estimated at 1.8x by snake oil selling seasonal consultants that migrate from one industry to another, selling quick-fix solutions. Never also mind, that the estimated share of 60 percent of livestock in agricultural GDP has no basis in reason, statistics, or literature. Yet, the steady-state growth recorded by Pakistan’s livestock sector over the last 20 years is as real as the state of democracy in this country, and, perhaps, even more real than the $70 billion FDI promised under the SIFC.
But enough about the shoddy, post-facto explanation called The Survey that convinces nobody. On to the federal budget, and good luck to all those who sincerely believe that the agriculture and livestock industry will become the basis of high economic growth in a country that’s largely semi-arid, and one of the highest at-risk due to climate change.