MOSCOW: Agricultural consultancy SovEcon said on Friday it had cut its 2024/25 Russian wheat export forecast to 46.1 million metric tons (mmt) from 47.8 million tons, reflecting a smaller expected crop. For the 2023/24 season, wheat exports are estimated at 52.2 mmt, it said. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter and any shortfall in shipments can push up global prices.

Earlier in June, SovEcon cut its 2024 wheat crop forecast to 80.7 mmt from 85.7 mmt after damage from May frosts. SovEcon said it expects the current year’s overall grain harvest to be 127.4 million tons, well down on the previous season’s 144.9 mmt.

“SovEcon believes that with a substantially smaller crop and rising food CPI (consumer price inflation), there is a higher chance of additional export restrictions in the new season,” it said.

The Russian government has said it will fulfil all its export commitments despite the May frosts that prompted it to declare an emergency in 10 regions, clearing the way for insurance payments to farmers. Crops have also been affected by hot and dry conditions in winter wheat regions and excessive rain in Siberia.

SovEcon also predicted sharp falls in the volumes of barley and corn exports, saying that for these crops - unlike wheat - the expected fall in production could not be compensated by significant stocks. Total grain and pulses exports in the new season are estimated at 56.0 million tons, down from 70.4 mmt in 2023/24. Barley exports in 2024/25 are estimated at 3.1 million tons, compared to 7.0 mmt, and corn shipments are seen at 3.6 mmt, down from 6.9 mmt.

SovEcon estimates the new barley crop at 18.6 mmt, compared to 21.2 mmt in 2023/24, and the new corn crop at 14.6 mmt versus 16.6 mmt.