SINGAPORE: The dollar rose on safety bids on Monday in the wake of the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump, which in turn left the yen struggling to stay afloat despite Tokyo’s suspected intervention efforts.
Trading was thinned in Asia with Japan out for a holiday, though news of the Trump shooting dominated the cautious market mood and had investors narrowing the odds of a Trump victory come November’s US elections.
The attempted assassination probably enhances Trump’s “reputation for strength”, said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. “The spectre of political violence introduces a whole new level of potential instability.”
The dollar rose broadly and pushed the euro 0.21% lower to $1.0887, while sterling fell 0.18% to $1.2966.
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar eased 0.17% to $0.6772, while the New Zealand dollar slid 0.38% to $0.6095.
“The market reaction function to a Trump presidency has been characterised by a stronger US dollar and a steepening of the US Treasuries curve, so we might observe some of that this coming week if his election odds are assessed to have further improved following this incident,” said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments.
Against a basket of currencies, the greenback was little changed at 104.28.
Cash US Treasuries were untraded in Asia on Monday owing to the Japan holiday, but 10-year Treasury futures edged lower, indicating yields will rise when cash trading begins later in the day. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Under a Trump presidency, market analysts expect a more hawkish trade policy, less regulation and looser climate change regulations.
Investors also expect an extension of corporate and personal tax cuts expiring next year, fuelling concerns about rising budget deficits under Trump.
Still struggling
China’s economy slowed in the second quarter, data showed on Monday, as a protracted property downturn and job insecurity weighed on domestic demand, keeping alive expectations Beijing will need to unleash more stimulus.
Separate figures released earlier in the day showed the country’s new home prices fell at the fastest pace in around nine years in June, as the battered sector struggles to find a bottom despite government support measures to control oversupply and bolster confidence.
The Chinese yuan hardly reacted to the data and only slightly extended its losses from earlier in the session to last trade 0.14% lower at 7.2609 per dollar in the onshore market.
“On net, it’s a negative outcome. It does show that the second-quarter growth momentum appears to be weakening,” said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
“The second-quarter momentum weakening kind of implies that we’ll need more support to get the economy to the 5% target for the whole year.”
China’s once-in-five-year gathering of top officials, which usually ushers in policy changes, kicked off on Monday and the four-day plenum will be watched for measures to support the patchy recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.
Elsewhere, the yen also remained on traders’ radars after Tokyo was thought to have intervened in the market to prop up the battered Japanese currency last week.
The dollar was last 0.34% higher at 158.08 yen, after having fallen to a roughly one-month low of 157.30 yen on Friday.
Bank of Japan data suggested last week that authorities may have spent up to 3.57 trillion yen ($22.4 billion) on Thursday in the most recent intervention bout this year.
Analysts said Monday’s holiday in Japan could make for ideal conditions for authorities to strike again given thin liquidity, similar to that of the April-May rounds of intervention.
“In order to make more ‘bang for their buck’, FX intervention in quiet conditions or after the release of softer US economic data seems like a sensible move,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.
“The intervention that was carried out this spring, indicated that the MOF is very prepared to act outside normal Tokyo trading hours.”