NEW YORK: The dollar retreated from earlier highs on Monday ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while cryptocurrencies rose on bets an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump has boosted his re-election chances.
In the aftermath of the shooting, investors narrowed the odds of a Trump victory. Online betting site PredictIt showed bets of an election win for Trump at 67 cents, up from Friday’s 60 cents, with Joe Biden at 27 cents.
The dollar tends to strengthen as part of what is known as the “Trump trade” of assets likely to perform well under a Trump presidency of a hawkish trade policy and looser regulation for certain industries.
Trump has presented himself as a staunch supporter for cryptocurrency, although he has not offered specifics on his proposed crypto policy.
But the initial reaction proved to be short-lived, with the greenback falling from its earlier highs.
“We’re just seeing a calming down of the initial reaction, so bonds open lower, US yields higher, dollar higher and we’re just calming down,” said Erik Bregar, director, FX & precious metals risk management at Silver Gold Bull in Toronto.
“The market is just trying not to overreact to what happened, consolidation now in early New York trade and Powell’s discussion with the Economic Club of Washington, that is next on the docket today.”
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.23% at 104.05 after rising as high as 104.31, with the euro up 0.09% at $1.0917. Sterling weakened 0.02% at $1.2989.
Powell is expected to speak at 12:30 p.m local time (1630 GMT), kicking off a key week of commentary from Fed officials. Earlier on Monday, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said interest rate cuts will soon be warranted.
Markets are currently pricing in a 94.4% chance of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) from the Fed in September, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, after data last week showed consumer prices fell on a monthly basis for the first time in four years in June.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.01% at 157.87. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is thought to have intervened in the market in another effort to buttress the battered Japanese currency last week after the cooler-than-expected US inflation report, with data from the central bank suggesting that authorities may have spent up to 3.57 trillion yen ($22.4 billion) to do so on Thursday.
Crypto prices jumped, with bitcoin last up roughly nearly 5% at $62,982 after reaching a two-week high of $63,273. Ether climbed nearly 6% to $3,364.20.