This is apropos a letter to the editor ‘Haniyeh killed in Iran: what next?” by this writer carried by the newspaper yesterday.
This theory resonate well with the Israel’s ruthless military onslaught on the Palestinians in Gaza, which did not stop even after protests in all parts of the world against the killing of over 40,000 innocent Palestinians including children, women, elderly and vulnerable groups with the declared objectives to eliminate Hamas completely from Gaza Strip no matter whatever is the cost.
This theory also resonates well with Israel’s declared intention to permanently resolve the Hezbollah prowess and prowess of the Houthis in Yemen and other Iranian proxies elsewhere. They also know that without reducing the military and economic might of Iran, no matter how seriously they inflict damage to these proxies they will re-emerge even stronger and better.
Therefore, in all probability this attack was deliberately executed in Iran to infuriate Iran’s leadership and bait them to launch an attack on Israeli and US interests. Let us build two hypothetical scenarios; one, in which Iran has attacked Israel and the US and second it seeks justice through diplomatic means.
If Iran decides to retaliate against Israel and the USA following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the immediate consequences would likely involve extensive military strikes by Israel and the USA targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, military bases, and infrastructure. This would lead to significant casualties and destruction within Iran, further crippling its economy and military capabilities.
The conflict would escalate rapidly, potentially drawing in regional allies and causing widespread instability.
The global economy would also be impacted, with oil prices soaring due to instability in the Gulf. Conversely, if Iran opts for a diplomatic resolution through the United Nations, it would seek international condemnation of the attack and justice for the violation of its sovereignty. This approach would garner support from several countries, leading to a formal UN inquiry and increased international attention. Diplomatic efforts might result in the easing of some sanctions on Iran, stabilizing its economy and enhancing domestic stability.
By choosing diplomacy over conflict, Iran would maintain its regional influence through non-military means and improve its international standing. This path would prevent further destruction and loss of life, fostering gradual improvements in regional stability and potential economic recovery for Iran.
Qamar Bashir
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024