PARIS: European wheat ended the week firm, supported by new estimates that French farmers gathered a quarter less wheat this year than in 2023, but traders were cautious ahead of the results of Egypt’s massive tender and a US government report next week.
Benchmark September milling wheat on Paris-based Euronext, closed unchanged at 217.00 euros ($236.94) a metric ton. Following deliveries were stable or slightly higher.
France’s farm ministry on Friday sharply cut its estimate of the country’s 2024 soft wheat output, now expected 25% below last year’s volume, making it one of the worst harvests of these past 40 years in the European Union’s largest grain grower.
“The bad news about the French harvest never seems to stop and there is worry about quality loss in Germany because of repeated rain,” one German trader said.
“It is clear now that France has suffered very badly. The picture in Germany is less clear with rain causing stop-start work to the harvest which continues to cause worry about lost quality,” he added.
Rain was again falling in northern Germany on Friday while hot and dry weather was forecast over the weekend which should allow more progress, but rain was again expected on Tuesday.
A hefty purchase of around 600,000 tons of wheat by Algeria on Thursday was expected to be dominated by Russian and other Black Sea supplies.
“The price Algeria paid looked so low that you would expect Russia and the other Black Sea suppliers to get the business,” another trader said. “At least a lot of Russia’s reduced harvest is being sucked out of the market which could open the way for EU sales later in the season.”
Russian agricultural consultancy Sovecon revised its forecast on Friday for the country’s 2024 wheat crop down to 82.9 million metric tons from 84.7 million tons, citing lower yields and a smaller seeded area as reasons for the downgrade.
“Eyes are now on Egypt’s massive 3.8 million ton purchase tender on Monday,” a trader said.
Meanwhile the US Department of Agriculture is due to release its supply and demand report at 1600 GMT on Monday.
Meanwhile, Ratings of French soft wheat showed 48% of the crop in good or excellent condition by Aug. 5, down from 50% the previous week and the lowest since the poor harvest of 2016, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday.
Wheat harvesting was 88% complete, compared with 67% the previous week and the five-year average of 91%. Producers and traders are expecting one of the smallest French wheat crops in decades after months of heavy rain hit planting and crop growth.
Harvesting of winter barley has finished while the durum wheat and spring barley harvest were 99% and 74% complete respectively, FranceAgriMer’s data showed.
For grain maize, harvested in autumn, the good/excellent score for the crop fell to 77%, down from 79% a week earlier and well below the 85% recorded at the same point last year