Russian rouble continues to weaken on Kursk escalation risks

14 Aug, 2024

MOSCOW: The Russian rouble weakened against the dollar on Wednesday after touching a 10-month low and then rebounding in the previous day’s session on risks of escalation following Ukraine’s biggest attack on the Russian territory since the start of the war.

By 0745 GMT, the rouble was 1.7% weaker at 92.10 to the dollar, according to LSEG data. It has lost 8.5% since the start of the attack on Aug. 6.

“The Russian currency has returned to weakening against the dollar and euro, apparently due to escalating geopolitical tensions,” said analyst Elena Kozhukhova from investment firm Veles Capital.

Trading in major currencies shifted to the over-the-counter (OTC) market, obscuring pricing data, after Western sanctions on the Moscow Exchange and its clearing agent, the National Clearing Centre, were introduced on June 12.

One-day rouble-dollar futures, which trade on the Moscow Exchange and serve as guidance for the OTC market rates, were down 0.4% on Wednesday to 90.06.

The central bank’s official exchange rate, which it calculates using the OTC data, was set at 92.66 for Wednesday, a 3% jump from the rate set for Tuesday.

Russian rouble weakens 8.5% as dollar gains following Kursk attack

The weakening of the rouble against the dollar and euro has continued despite support from higher oil prices and increased net daily sales of yuan by the central bank and finance ministry.

Russian exporters, whose sales of foreign currency to make tax payments usually support the rouble were also largely absent from the market as the payments were not due until later in August.

According to an analysis of the OTC market, the rouble had weakened by 0.1% to 12.09 against the Chinese yuan, which has become the most traded foreign currency in Moscow. During the Tuesday session rouble hit lowest to yuan since June 24.

It was down 1.6% at 101.11 against the euro, according to LSEG data.

Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia’s main export, was up 0.04% at $80.99 a barrel after an industry report showed U.S. crude and gasoline inventories fell and as the market watched for a possible widening of the Israel-Gaza war.

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