Most major stock markets in the Gulf fell in early trade on Monday as caution prevailed ahead of key US inflation data later in the week that could provide clarity on the size of the Federal Reserve’s likely interest rate cut this month.

Investors analysed last week’s mixed US jobs data and comments from Fed officials, which suggested a weak labour market but without sufficient justification for a 50-basis point interest rate cut.

The US inflation report on Wednesday will be a key indicator that could shift market expectations for the outcome of Fed’s Sept. 17-18 meeting.

Monetary policy in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), including the UAE, is usually guided by the Fed’s policy decisions because most currencies in the region are pegged to the dollar. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index dropped 0.2%, with Al Taiseer Group losing 0.3% and the country’s biggest lender Saudi National Bank down 0.4%.

The kingdom’s real gross domestic product decreased 0.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, estimates by the government’s statistical authority showed on Sunday.

On the other hand, telecom firm Etihad Etisalat gained 0.9%, after signing a hosting agreement with Red Bull Mobile. Dubai’s main share index eased 0.1%, hit by a 1.7% slide in top lender Emirates NBD.

Gulf markets in red on mixed US job report

In Abu Dhabi, the index retreated 0.7%.

The Qatari benchmark, however, edged 0.1% higher in choppy trade.