South African rand on front foot post-Fed, SARB decision up next

19 Sep, 2024

JOHANNESBURG: The South African rand gained in early trade on Thursday after a super-sized interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, and as local investors awaited a rate decision by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) later in the day.

At 0735 GMT, the rand traded at 17.4650 against the dollar, about 0.4% stronger than its previous close. The US currency was down around 0.3% against a basket of peers.

The SARB is also widely expected to cut rates on Thursday in what would be its first easing step in more than four years.

Data showed on Wednesday that South Africa’s annual inflation rate fell to 4.4% last month, its lowest level since April 2021 and just below the mid-point of the SARB’s 3% to 6% target range.

Even before August’s inflation figures were released, economists polled by Reuters predicted the SARB’s repo rate would be lowered by 25 basis points (bps).

“Markets (are) expecting the central bank to cut by 25 bps. However, there are growing calls for a 50 bps cut after local inflation fell below the mid-point of the SARB’s target range and on the back of the larger Fed rate cut,” said Andre Cilliers, currency strategist at TreasuryONE.

South African rand stable as markets await US interest rate hints

The Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps on Wednesday, weakening the dollar and boosting the risk-sensitive rand, which hit a 14-month high after the announcement.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40 index was up about 1% in early trade.

South Africa’s benchmark 2030 government bond was little changed in early deals, with the yield at 8.83%.

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