CANBERRA: Chicago wheat futures rose on Friday after the International Grains Council (IGC) cut its global production forecast, but remained on track for a weekly loss of nearly 4% on ample supply from the Black Sea region.
Corn and soybean futures rose slightly but pressure from the ongoing US harvest limited gains. Corn was headed for a 1.6% weekly loss, while soy looked to add 1% this week.
Wheat is unlikely to rise much further because buyers see no shortage on the horizon, said Andrew Whitelaw at agricultural consultancy Episode 3 in Canberra. “There isn’t concern about getting access to wheat. We don’t expect any significant price rally in the coming days.”
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 1.2% at $5.72 a bushel by 0258 GMT.
Prices soared to a three-month high of $5.99 last week as European crop losses, dry conditions in parts of Russia and Ukraine and a missile attack on a grain vessel in the Black Sea raised supply concerns.
Also helping CBOT contracts was a sharply weaker US dollar making US crops more competitive in the global markets. Negative news about supplies supported prices on Friday.
Wheat claws back some ground even as Black Sea supply pressures prices
The IGC trimmed its 2024-25 global wheat output forecast by a million tons to 798 million tons, Argentine farmers abandoned wheat fields due to a lack of rainfall and heavy rains killed winter crops in parts of Siberia during sprouting time.
But Russian wheat prices did not follow the CBOT higher and the country, by far the world’s biggest exporter, continues to ship huge quantities, out-competing US grain.
After a run of good US export sales, weekly data on Thursday showed them dropping below analysts’ expectations. CBOT wheat, corn and soybeans futures are all near four-year lows reached in July and August.
Corn was up 0.3% at $4.06-3/4 a bushel and soybeans climbed 0.3% to $10.16 a bushel.
The IGC lowered its 2024-25 world corn crop outlook by 2 million tons to 1.224 billion tons, while retaining its 2024-25 global soybean output forecast at 419 million tons.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported US soybean export sales above trade expectations. US soy exports have picked up after one of the worst seasons in recent memory but remain disconcertingly low. Commodity funds cut their net short positions in CBOT wheat, corn and soybeans but remain bearish.
They were net sellers of all three on Thursday, traders said.