ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy has posted a stable growth of 3.07 per cent during the fourth quarter of financial year 2023-24, according to the estimates approved by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) on Monday.

The growth in agriculture, industry and services stands at 6.76 per cent, -3.59 per cent and 3.69 per cent, respectively, in fourth quarter of financial year 2023-24.

The 110th meeting of the NAC was held at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Headquarters, Statistics House, Islamabad. The secretary Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives chaired the meeting.

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The committee approved the revised quarterly GDP growth rates for first quarter, second quarter, third quarter and fresh estimates of fourth quarter during financial year 2023-24 and updated annual growth rates for 2022-23 (Revised) and 2023-24 (Provisional).

The NAC also approved the updated provisional growth of GDP at 2.52 per cent during financial year 24, which was higher than previous estimates of 2.38 per cent. The updated growth rates in agriculture, industry and services are 6.36 per cent, -1.15 per cent and 2.15 per cent respectively in financial year-24.

During fourth quarter, crops have posted a double-digit growth of 14.03 per cent. The growth in important crops stands at 26.98 per cent mainly due to wheat (31.58 M.T) and partly due to low base effect of corresponding quarter i.e. -7.93 per cent during fourth quarter of financial year 2022-23. Due to decline in fruits, fourth quarter growth in other crops is negative i.e. -1.53 per cent as compared to -0.64 per cent in last year.

While livestock has grown at 3.98 per cent vs 4.31 per cent in fourth quarter, a high-base effect of 15.12 per cent has resulted into negative growth of 0.35 per cent in forestry.

Despite a positive growth in large-scale manufacturing (4.19 per centvs-19.5 per cent), the remaining components of the industry i.e. mining and quarrying (-5.32 per cent vs 1.22 per cent),electricity, gas and water supply (-35.57 per cent vs. 9.15 per cent) and construction (-0.47 per cent vs. -20.46 per cent)have registered negative growth rates during fourth quarter.

Although growth rates in finance and insurance (-2.55 per cent) and public administration and social security (-0.18 per cent) are negative, the overall growth in services is positive (3.69 per cent) during fourth quarter 2023-24 due to wholesale & retail trade (4.79 per cent), transportation and storage (2.11 per cent), information and communication (7.95 per cent),education (9.04 per cent), human health and social work activities (5.86 per cent) and other private services(3.38 per cent).

The committee approved the revised first, second and third quarter estimates of 2023-24.

Overall GDP for first quarter, second quarter and third quarter for financial year 2023-24 has witnessed a revised growth of 2.69 per cent, 1.97 per cent and 2.36 per cent as compared to 2.71 per cent, 1.79 per cent and 2.09 per cent presented in 109th meeting of the NAC respectively. While the revised growth rates in agriculture during first quarter (8.64 per cent vs 8.59 per cent) and Q2 (6.12 per cent vs. 5.83 per cent) have improved, the growth in third quarter has slighted declined from 3.94 per cent to 3.92 per cent.

The industrial activities have posted downward revisions in all three quarters i.e. from -2.44 per cent to -2.66 per cent in first quarter, from 0.09 per cent to -1.15 per cent in second quarter, and from 3.84 per cent to 2.83 per cent in third quarter mainly due to downward revisions in annual benchmarks of electricity, gas, water supply, and construction industries.

While the first quarter growth in services has remainedstable at 2.03 per cent vs 2.02 per cent, both in second quarter (from 0.75 per cent to 1.33 per cent) and third quarter (from 0.83 per cent to 1.60 per cent)have witnessed upward revisions due to improvements in annual benchmarks in wholesale and retail trade (WRT), transportation and storage, and information and communication industries.

The committee also approved the updated revised growth during FY 2022-23 at -0.22 per cent, which was estimated at -0.21 per cent in the previous meeting.

In the updated estimates, agriculture has slightly declined from 2.27 per cent to 2.21 per cent, the industry (-3.70 per cent vs -3.74 per cent) and services (-0.02 per cent vs -0.01 per cent) have remained stable. Further, the committee also approved the updated provisional growth of GDP at 2.52 per cent during FY 2023-24 based on improved data from the sources as compared to 2.38 per cent estimated in the previous meeting.

The updated growth rates in agriculture, industry and services are 6.36 per cent, -1.15 per cent and 2.15 per cent respectively. The healthy growth of agriculture is mainly due to double-digit growth in important crops i.e. 17.02 per cent, which was 16.82 per cent in previous meeting on account of improvement in wheat (from 31.438 to 31.583 MT). While the growth in other crops has declined from 0.90 per cent to -1.20 per cent, the livestock has improved from 3.89 per cent to 4.47 per cent due to decrease in inputs. In the updated estimates for 2023-24, industry has declined by -1.15 per cent against 1.21 per cent presented in the previous meeting.

There is a downward revision in mining and quarrying from 4.85 per cent to 3.47 per cent because of decrease in gas (-2.22 per cent) and coal (-2.10 per cent). Large scale manufacturing, which is based on Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM), has improved to 0.91 per cent (July-June QIM) from 0.07 per cent (July-March QIM) due to increase in food (from +1.69 per cent to +1.73 per cent), wearing apparel (from +5.41 per cent to +8.24 per cent), and coke and petroleum (from +4.85 per cent to +9.81 per cent).

The decline in electricity, gas and water supply industry has accelerated by -23.05 per cent vs. -10.55 per cent because of decrease in output of WAPDA and companies, KE and Gas (SNGPL). In the updated estimates, construction industry has declined by -1.47 per cent as compared to 5.86 per cent estimated in the previous meeting due to increase in construction related expenditures in the public sector.

The updated growth in services is 2.15 per cent as compared to 1.21 per cent estimated in previous estimates.

There are major positive changes in WRT (3.39 per cent vs 0.32 per cent due to increase in LSM and imports), transport and storage (1.91 per cent vs 1.19 per cent due to railways, KPT, PIA and CAA), information and communication (0.30 per cent vs -3.02 per cent due to IT exports).

However, growth in some industries has declined e.g. finance and insurance (-10.67 per cent vs 9.64 per cent), public administration and social security (-7.26 per cent vs -5.25 per cent), education (8.55 per centvs10.30 per cent) and human health and social work (5.55 per cent and 6.80 per cent). Other private services remained stable at 3.61 per cent vs 3.58 per cent in previous estimates.

The committee also approved the introduction of quarterly estimates of net taxes, GDP, net primary income, and gross national income (GNI) in the National Statistical System of Pakistan, there by paving the way for the quarterisation of the expenditure side of the economy.

Overall the forum appreciated the efforts of National Accounts team of PBS and key stakeholders including Ministry of Planning Development and Special Initiatives, Ministry of Finance and State Bank of Pakistan in preparation of quarterly GDP.

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.2 per cent during financial year 24-25, compared to 2.4 per cent recorded in the last fiscal year. The projection was higher than the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) projection, which expected GDP to grow by a moderate 2.8 per cent in the ongoing fiscal year.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024