One year to October 7, and here we are possibly, at the beginning of a nuclear confrontation.
With all diplomatic efforts failed, the United States has found itself (whether willingly or unwillingly) now funding Israel’s “limited incursion” into Lebanon.
With a stellar track record of “limited incursions”, we can possibly map how this will pan out – violent and reckless with no endgame in sight.
Currently, we stand at over 1 million displaced in Lebanon, with thousands killed. This is on top of the 41,000 slaughtered in Gaza.
4 seasons of ‘Fauda’ – an Israeli television series – on Netflix could not have prepared me for the real-life horror unfolding in front of me currently.
It’s not that we are unaware of the Palestinian struggle for the past 80 years – we have. Pakistan is well versed with self-determination and freedom struggles as well.
Without sanctions or an arms embargo, Netanyahu is unlikely to stop. He is not interested in a ceasefire and thinks he’s on a roll
It’s not that it’s without precedent, we have now witnessed invasions of sovereign nations (Afghanistan, Iraq) by Western imperialist nations, on grounds of their “democratic” ideals.
No. It’s not that we have not seen any of this before.
It’s that nothing prepared us for the level of sheer brutality and accompanying impunity compressed within a few months.
Following the botched Iraq invasion, George W Bush exited office in disgrace and The New York Times issued an apology to readers for not upholding their journalistic integrity and pandering to war propaganda.
Now, we have thousands killed, including those buried under the vast tons of rubble, over 3 millions displaced in both Gaza and Lebanon, all on the run, together.
Gaza’s economy has taken a 90% dive, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says, with schools, farmland, residential and commercial infrastructure decimated.
Last month, Israel also bombed a scientific research centre near Masyaf, Syria that it alleged was used to develop weapons. This was not the first time Syria has been targeted by Israel.
The West Bank and Beirut too are now on fire, and the less said about Western media’s complicity, barring a few (The Intercept, Democracy Now), the better.
Not a single force has been able to curb it. No ceasefire in Gaza in sight – despite repeated calls – and an expanding bombing campaign in Lebanon – the Israeli PM Netanyahu will listen to no reason and US President Joe Biden will not direct him to stop – contrary to many presidents before him. Presidents do happen to have that power.
Instead, it turns a blind eye and plays spectator – plausible deniability being the name of the game.
Without sanctions or an arms embargo, Netanyahu is unlikely to stop. He is not interested in a ceasefire and thinks he’s on a roll.
His speech at the UN featured no mention of a resolution, and no plans to bring the hostages home. In fact, while he was speaking, a plan to bomb the longstanding leader of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah in a Beirut suburb was already in play, shocking the world.
Israel had already baited Iran by assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and now a response was imminent.
Iran responded with a missile shower that were mostly deflected by Israel’s air defense systems – with the help of the US military – but showcased its military arsenal to the world.
The Gulf Cooperation Council, a consortium of Arab states – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar – is reassuring Iran of its neutrality, and sent a message to the Iranians to “please de-escalate”.
As we wait for Israel to strike back at Iran following their missile deluge, it’s hard to imagine how far Netanyahu and his forces are willing to go.
Are they clearing the path for a “Greater Israel”?
Any normalisation of relations with Israel is not in the cards, nor is an alliance of Arab nations against Iran according to Vali Nasr.
Or rather there is no grand strategy, no long-term plan for the region, rather is just moving along showing its military might and intelligence capacity, attempting to degrade the enemy’s capacity in the short-term.
But if history is a teacher, Israel has assassinated presidents, political leaders through the course of time and each time has not succeeded in eliminating its cause.
Israel has previously assassinated the Hassan Nasrallah’s predecessor also, and the group came out bigger and stronger. It is currently still playing whack-a-mole with Nasrallah’s successor, Hashem Safieddine.
More importantly if we know this, they do too. So what’s the catch? What do they think and believe they are doing differently this time to make it stick?
And how long will the world wait to find out?
Unless the US, UN, ICJ and nation states do not get together to sanction, gag, jail, penalise Israel and its war criminals, the world will have to continue to absorb record numbers of conflicts, refugees, volatile markets and general unrest for months to come.
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