The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Islamabad provides a once in lifetime opportunity to Pakistan to regain and showcase its relevance in global politics and economic outreach beyond borders.
The SCO October 15-16 summit at Islamabad marks the biggest gathering of top world leaders in the country since a conclave of developing nations in 2012.
SCO should be looked at with the lens that it is a part of a much bigger grouping, under the Global Security Initiatives (GSI), unfolded by President Xi of China to establish a new great power relationship to counterbalance the U.S. dominance; notably, in Asia. Disappointed with the US pullback on China’s initiatives and global outreach, President Xi aligned with Russia in February 2022 and declared “no limits” friendship with Russia. Russia is now an integral part of President Xi’s initiatives for global outreach in economy, diplomacy, security and peace.
The GSI lays much emphasis on Asia, as an anchor for world peace, a powerhouse for global growth, and a new pace setter for international cooperation. GSI calls upon Indo-Pacific countries to cooperate and leverage the role of regional organizations and groupings such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the economic cluster of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), the China-Central Asia Summit, and mechanisms of East Asian cooperation. GSI aims to realize the vision of Asian nations and plans to extend to other parts of the world, including Africa, the Caribbean, and Latin America, and promote peace and stability in the Middle East.
On the surface, the GSI does not pose an immediate threat to the U.S. and its allies and partners, but its underlying intention is viewed with suspicion by the west. Many countries which are part of GSI and also have their interests aligned with the west are exercising caution and are balancing their acts between the two groups.
The presence of India and Pakistan in SCO makes a significant difference. The two put together could provide connectivity between Central Asian states and South Asian states and beyond that to Eurasia at one end and Asia Pacific at other end. The positivity between India and Pakistan, overriding their bilateral conflicts, could make all the difference to the aspirations and objectives of SCO.
The Indo-Pak perpetual rivalry has compromised the objectives and aspirations of SCO and its member states. India-Pakistan rivalry effectively paralysed the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) and reduced it to a largely symbolic entity. Here, too, the rivalry disappointed the other Saarc states, namely: Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Afghanistan.
The Saarc precedent raises concerns for the SCO, where the same tensions could potentially impede progress of the organisation. However, the SCO’s stronger foundation, led by global powers like China and Russia, has no tolerance on that account. President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin consider such projects as essential for their global ambitions and outreach.
“Before joining the grouping in 2017, India and Pakistan committed not to bring into the SCO family any bilateral contradictions and differences as the SCO is not dealing with settling disputable bilateral issues, whether they are related to border, water or other issues in relations between its member states,” the SCO’s the then Secretary-General Vladimir Norov told the media.
Notwithstanding the commitments made, the emotions between the two neighbours do spike at the slightest provocation. A spat between India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and the then Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari over the Kashmir issue and “terrorism” dominated media headlines around the conclave when India hosted the SCO foreign Ministers summit in July 2023 at Delhi.
The test case for harmony between the two neighbours is around the corner when the India’s External Affairs Minister is set to attend the SCO summit at Islamabad on October 15-16 making it the first visit by any Indian external affairs minister to Pakistan in nine years. The last visit was made by the then India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj (the late) in December 2015, just before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unexpected stopover in Lahore.
Another opportunity which knocks at the door of Pakistan to regain relevance in the region is to effectively capitalize on the statement of Bangladesh interim government’s Chief Adviser, Muhammad Yunus, made this week, in which he emphasised the importance of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc). The United Nations in its latest report has stated that South Asia outlook is expected to remain strong, outperforming other regions with GDP projected to grow by 5.8 per cent in 2024 and 5.7 percent in 2025.
A Bangladeshi daily quoted Yunus as saying, “I feel that this is (region’s) our future. The European Union can move ahead so closely despite such historical divides. We do not have such a history of conflict. Why can’t we be able to move ahead”? When questioned about the obstacles preventing Saarc’s reactivation, Yunus replied, “That can be resolved.”
He suggested that India suspend certain issues with Pakistan while still advancing with Saarc, describing this as a key policy he intends to follow. Yunus also confirmed that Bangladesh would intensify efforts to gain ASEAN membership. “We will have ASEAN on one side, Saarc on the other, with Bangladesh in the middle. We can align with both blocs. This will give us a broader position,” he explained.
In the same context one can say that Pakistan and India grouped together, have Eurasia and Central Asia on one side and Saarc and ASEAN on the other. If the irritants between Pakistan and India could be removed and both countries mend their ways for a greater cause then Eurasia, Saarc and ASEAN blocs could be aligned together for remarkable prosperity, regional security, political and social harmony in this most populated and underleveraged region on the globe.
The ambition level of Bangladesh Chief Executive Mohammad Yonus and his vision of a level playing field to all members of Saarc, without prejudice, marks a new turn in politics and diplomacy of Bangladesh projecting its bounce-back with greater vigour in a far shorter period of time. His conciliatory approach to Pakistan could also mean a dramatic shift in the relationship between the two former comrades.
India however continues to be on the path of alienating Pakistan in its regional and global outreach. Upon failure of Saarc and to satisfy the aspirations of South Asian states for a common market, an association of BIMSTEC (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand Economic Cooperation) has been sponsored by India. It includes the countries of the Bay of Bengal region: five countries from South Asia and two from ASEAN to create a bridge between South Asia and South East Asia. It includes all the major countries of South Asia, except the Maldives, Afghanistan and Pakistan, as all the three have been on the wrong side of India at one time or another.
Though Pakistan is battling against economic and political challenges, it has strong cards in its hand to make its relevance accepted in the region as a partner to reckon with. Pakistan’s traditional closeness with China and the emerging approach of Russia towards Pakistan for closer political and economic ties make a significant difference in positioning Pakistan well in the region.
China’s stakes in Pakistan are too high to pass by, notably, with its footprints in Pakistan through China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the port of Gwadar whose significance as the most strategic location on the globe has been recognised in these times of global uncertainty. Pakistan only has to put its act together and capitalise on the opportunity to regain its global and regional relevance.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024