ISLAMABAD: Political economy considerations and pressures from vested interests could delay or weaken the reform momentum and put at risk still-brittle stability, says the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The Fund in its latest report stated that resurgence in political or social tensions could weigh on policy and reform implementation. Political economy considerations and pressures from vested interests could delay or weaken the reform momentum and put at risk still-brittle stability.
The external environment remains challenging as well, with still tight global financing conditions, volatile commodity prices, and elevated geopolitical tensions.
IMF urges Pakistan to ‘move away’ from state-led growth model, calls for structural reforms
Notwithstanding the new government’s intent to deepen reforms under a new Fund-supported program, political uncertainty remains significant, and pressures for easing policies and providing tax concessions and subsidies are strong.
Policy slippages, including particularly on needed revenue measures, together with lower external financing, could undermine the narrow path to debt sustainability, given the high level of gross financing needs, and place pressure on the exchange rate and on banks to finance the government (further exacerbating crowding out of the private sector, which could entrench a low-growth—low-financial-development equilibrium). Geopolitically-driven higher commodity prices or tighter global financial conditions could also adversely affect external stability.
The report also noted that the Fund faces a number of major enterprise risks associated with a new program. Notably, business risks are elevated due to the potential for the program to go off-track, as well as, Pakistan’s challenging security situation, which could adversely impact FDI, among others.
Reputational risks would arise if the Fund were perceived as treating Pakistan differently from other members that ostensibly enjoy less support. Alternatively, not proceeding with a new program also raises reputational risks as the new authorities, or other members, may accuse the Fund of not being even-handed especially following the successful SBA.
Although near-term financial risks have declined since SBA approval, they remain very elevated and are to be mitigated through phased access, burden sharing, and adequate financing assurances.
Operational risks in relation to staff’s in-country activities persist, although Fund activities are closely coordinated in line with policies and supported by United Nations Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS)
The report also noted that notwithstanding recent progress, deep structural challenges continue to weigh on Pakistan’s economic prospects. Pakistani living standards have declined relative to peer in South and South East Asia over the past decades, reflecting weak policies, inadequate investment in human and physical capital, and distortions from an outsized role of the state.
At the same time, structural fiscal policy weaknesses and repeated boom-bust cycles have increased external financing needs and depleted buffers, leaving a narrow path to fiscal and external sustainability. To build on the hard-won transient stability created over the past year, sound policies and reforms need to be strengthened and sustained.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024