The shrinking of the automobile market for newly assembled vehicles is almost palpable and can be felt (by assemblers)as well as seen (by market experts), so naturally, a slight surge in volumes during Sep-24, up 18 percent compared to the previous month may seem like a recovery; it’s not. At least not just yet. Talking about recovery would be burying the Lede, won’t it? When there are better things to talk about.

Let’s first get the September surge out of the way. Volumes for passenger cars, LCVs, and SUVs at roughly 10,000 units for the month are only as high as the average since January of this year. There is very little likelihood that a massive increase in volumes would be seen without single-digit interest rates and a relaxation of financing restrictions. Between the three Japanese OEMs, 35-40 percent of the vehicles sold in the market are typically bank-financed when interest rates are at reasonably affordable levels. Even with monetary policy loosening, the market is not there yet.

What curious minds instead should lend their attention to is the rise of Haval. Sazgar’s Haval, to be exact. That one rickshaw maker that always published its production numbers to the PSX, rain or shine, is zooming past other assemblers at SUV-speeds after introducing the Haval H6 to the market followed by the Haval Jolian petrol addition, followed by Haval Jolion Hybrid launched in March. Since January, Sazgar has sold the largest volumes cumulatively, after Toyota’s Corolla+Yaris, Honda’s City+Civicvolumes, and Suzuki’s Alto, a major feat considering the fairly small, albeit growing segment the brand targets.

Apart from its design aesthetics, customers are drawing towards the value for money it gives and the company’s stellar after-sales service. While long-time Toyota loyalists are still leaning toward the Corolla Cross, others looking for different flavors are taking the bet on the Chinese Haval, especially given the market response.

The other relatively newer player is Hyundai which is nowhere near its peak volumes at the moment, despite offering free registrations, and special financing plans to lure in customers. The company has managed to introduce a variety of models with varying levels of success and market response and it is grabbing about an average of 8 percent of the market which is encouraging. The other contender in the category is Kia which has a similar growth trajectory as Hyundai. Both have established a presence in the market that cannot be ignored with the former relying on its brand recognition and build quality/ features, while the latter focusing on aggressive market and after-sales services. If Kia has Sportage, Hyundai has Tucson, but unlike Kia’s less successful models, Hyundai also has Elantra, a sedan that competes with Corolla and has still found a market for itself.

Compared to these both however is the emerging Haval that has to fight for market recognition as well as market share and is doing reasonably well considering its novice status. In Sep-24, it had a market share of 8 percent; in August, it was 11 percent which is massive (remember that only PAMA reported numbers are used here, so KIA, Changan, and MG volumes are not included here).

One thing is for sure, the market is more colorful than ever before, and there is a growing sense of competition, even if newer assemblers have to work harder, longer, and faster than traditional OEMs.When interest rates decline, and the economy begins to truly recover—especially now with fresh EV launches—it would be an interesting market to watch, perhaps for the first time in a long time.