MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices rose last week, in line with the new indicative prices for Russian wheat published for the first time, while export volumes remain high, with analysts expecting record shipments in October.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian new crop wheat scheduled free-on-board (FOB) for delivery in November was $234 per metric ton at the end of last week, up $4, according to Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

The Sovecon consultancy reported that prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content were $234-$237 per ton, up from $231-$233 the previous week.

Russia’s Grain Exporters Union started publishing indicative export prices for Russian wheat last week. It said that the export price for wheat with 12.5% protein content FOB should be $240 per ton for October, $245 for November, and $250 for December.

Exporters are expected to set their prices in line with these levels, although actual deals could occur at lower prices, Sovecon noted, warning that a higher expected price also implies a higher export duty in the future, driving up current export volumes.

“This is driving a rise in the average price index, which is used to calculate the weekly export tax. The index is already rising quickly, and with the Agriculture Ministry’s intervention, it will continue to do so,” the agency said in its weekly note.

“One consequence is that exporters are incentivized to sell and clear customs quickly to avoid paying a higher tax in the future,” it added.

Weekly grain exports are estimated at 1.01 million tons, down from 1.28 million a week ago, including 0.94 million tons of wheat, down from 1.19 million.

Sovecon raised its October export estimate by 0.1 million tons to a new potential record of 4.8 million tons, compared to the record-high 4.7 million tons a year ago. The harvesting of the 2024 crop is coming to an end in Russia. Winter crop sowing has accelerated after initially lagging behind last year, Sovecon noted.

The Russian state weather forecasting agency said that until the end of October, the weather will be favourable for winter crops in most regions of the country, except for Rostov, Russia’s main grain-growing region.