Power generation in Pakistan stood at 12,487 GWh (17,343 MW) in September 2024, a decline of over 6% YoY as compared to the same period of the previous year.

Back in September 2023, power generation stood at 13,339 GWh (18,527 MW).

On a monthly basis, power generation registered a fall of 5.3% as compared to 13,179 GWh in August.

In the first quarter of FY25 (July-September), power generation fell by 8.1% YoY to 40,546 GWh compared to 44,137 GWh in the SPLY.

Experts attributed the decline in electricity generation to various factors.

“The decline in generation comes on account of depressed economic conditions,” said Amad Aamir, an analyst at Arif Habib Limited (AHL). “Moreover, increased solarisation and captive power generation within the country is also contributing to the decline.”

The trend suggests more consumers are expected to go off-grid, he noted.

Pakistan’s power generation falls sharply amid rising costs, solarisation

During September 2024, actual power generation was 10% lower than the reference generation.

“This decline in generation is expected to result in higher capacity charges of Rs5.6/Kwh for Dec’24, Jan’25 and Feb’25,” as per AHL.

On the other hand, the total cost of generating electricity in Pakistan increased significantly by 12.4%, clocking in at Rs8.34 KWh in September 2024 compared to Rs7.42 KWh registered in the same period of the previous year.

The increase in cost is attributed to the rise in power generation cost from imported coal, which climbed to Rs25.96 KWh, a gain of over 9%, as compared to Rs23.8 KWh in SPLY.

“Fuel cost has risen owing to lower production from hydel and nuclear, both of which are relatively cheaper power sources, and higher generation from the costly imported coal, which increased by over 78% year-on-year,” said Aamir.

In September, hydel emerged as the leading source of power generation, accounting for 38.7% of the generation mix, to become the largest source of electricity generation.

This was followed by RLNG, which accounted for 16.3% of the overall generation, ahead of nuclear, which accounted for 12.8% of the power generation share.

Among renewables, wind, solar and bagasse generation amounted to 3.2%, 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively, of the generation mix.