Asian FX weaken on slower Fed cut hopes

25 Oct, 2024

BENGALURU: The Thai baht sank to a six-week low on Thursday, while most Asian currencies seesawed in a narrow range and regional equities edged lower as traders tempered bets of aggressive US rate cuts and considered the possibility of a second Trump presidency.

The baht dropped as much as 1% to 33.83 per US dollar, its lowest since Sept. 10, seemingly looking to catch up with the decline in its peers in the previous session as the currency resumed trading after a holiday.

The Singapore dollar and Philippine peso were last up 0.2% each, while the South Korean won ticked 0.1% higher.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six rivals, held close to a three-month high, getting a boost as investors no longer expect an outsized 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, a view that is reflected in rising Treasury yields.

The greenback is also getting a boost from the anticipation that Donald Trump will win a second term as US president, as his tax and tariff policies are considered inflationary, which would keep US rates high and hit trading partner currencies.

In Indonesia, the rupiah, which has slid more than 3% from its September peak, despite central bank intervention, is at the forefront of policymakers’ thinking.

The newly sworn-in cabinet, which includes the highly regarded Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, indicates a continuation of existing policies, helping boost investor confidence and supporting the currency, said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist with OCBC said.

The rupiah rose 0.2%, while equities in Jakarta slipped 0.4%.

In Malaysia, annual inflation came in at 1.8% in September, slightly below expectations.

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