EDITORIAL: The Asian Development Bank in its Pakistan National Urban Assessment report has argued that livability in Pakistani cities is decreasing, urban centres are becoming increasingly inefficient scoring low on multiple competitive indexes with congestion, unattractiveness and pollution.
This is a damning indictment of management of our capital cities in all four provinces that have been under the chief ministership of: (i) Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf from August 2018 to 22 January 2023 followed by incumbent Minister of Interior Mohsin Naqvi till 25 February 2024, ostensibly selected by stakeholders, followed by Maryam Nawaz, the scion of the ruling PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif; (ii) Murad Ali Shah, Pakistan People’s Party stalwart, has been the chief minister of Sindh since June 2016 with two caretakers notably Fazlur Rehman June to August 2018 and Justice Maqbool Baqar August 2013 to February 2024; (iii) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has been ruled by PTI since 2013 – first by Pervez Khattak (2013-18) and then by Mahmud Khan (2018 to 2023) and now by Amin Gandapur since March 2024 interspersed with three caretakers – Dost Mohammad Khan in 2018 and Mohammad Azam and Arshad Hussain Shah in the 2023 caretaker setup.
Prior to 2018 when the third political force, the PTI, emerged as a key player at the Centre, in Punjab, KPK and as is usual succeeded in forming a government in Balochistan as well, Punjab had been widely regarded as PML-N forte while Sindh was the PPP’s.
In other words, political parties cannot absolve themselves of responsibility in the urban deterioration in their respective provinces. Lahore was cited as being the victim of uncoordinated housing schemes no doubt on the back of the visible presence of real estate tycoons in all the three major national political parties as well as both federal and provincial governments.
Karachi remains divided along ethnic and sectarian lines, that has been the root cause of violent protests. Peshawar and to a greater extent Quetta are subjected to periodic terror attacks with large influx of foreign nationals, attacks which are being dealt with by civilian and military security/law enforcement agencies with frequent reports of defusing of imminent threats though they have not yet been totally contained.
In the case of Islamabad the ADB report cites Professor Pollalis as saying that urban aggregation, arguably the key driver to economic and social development, is challenged by failing public services, declining quality of life and flagging economic productivity.
Residents of Islamabad cite frequent protests as a source of considerable angst – protests against the government’s economic and sector-specific policies, apart from protests organised by the Opposition, leading to a virtual shutdown of the Red Zone where all government ministries/authorities are based, including the Supreme Court of Pakistan, the National Assembly and Senate, and Federal Board of Revenue. As per a recent report prepared by the Ministry of Finance, these protests have led to a decline in the quality of life of around 800,000 people.
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) recently uploaded staff report on the ongoing Extended Fund Facility programme noted social discontent risks to the programme conditions in the short to medium term as high and cited “high inflation, real income loss, spillovers from conflicts (including migration), worsening inequality, and disputed elections cause social unrest and detrimental populist policies.
This exacerbates imbalances, slows growth, and leads to policy uncertainty and market repricing.” The IMF’s recommended policy reform appears to be ill suited to meet this major risk to the programme, which includes (i) Scale up targeted social assistance.
This is easier said than done especially given the country’s extremely narrow fiscal space and the current poverty level of 41 percent, which is rising and leads the Fund to conclude that “inadequate investment in infrastructure has left Pakistan vulnerable to the impact of climate change, most recently felt with the devastating impact of the 2022 floods”; (ii) Resist pressures to weaken fiscal discipline and preserve fiscal and debt sustainability – a challenge that remains unmet as negotiations with the traders to generate a budgeted mere 50 billion rupees in the current year remain stalled; and (iii) Build fiscal and external buffers which to this day are almost entirely debt-based with accompanying debt servicing costs.
The IMF report also notes that political economy considerations and pressures from vested interests could delay or weaken the reform momentum and put at risk still-brittle stability. To spread the perception that Pakistan is an investment-friendly country - in terms of both local and foreign investment - requires less of a focus on enforcement measures backed by complete lockdowns and more on ensuring competitive neutrality and a level playing field – a policy thrust committed by the Pakistani authorities to the Fund team which includes extending “regulatory, spending, or tax-based incentives of any sort, or any guaranteed returns, or take any other action that could distort the investment landscape.” These are challenging commitments, requiring a major change in the way stakeholders have been governing in this country for five decades if not more.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024