SAO PAULO: Brazilian coffee areas had an ample flowering in October following the return of rains, according to co-ops and agronomists, but it remains to be seen if those flowers will lead to a good fruit load for the 2025 crop.

A good crop in Brazil next year is seen by the market as key to balance the global supply of coffee, after below-potential production in top growers in the last two seasons. Brazil is the largest producer of the commodity, and some experts believe rains came too late to allow for a large 2025 crop.

“It was a concentrated and large flowering, a good one,” said Carlos Augusto Rodrigues de Melo, head of co-op Cooxupe, Brazil’s leading coffee exporter.

“But as old farmers say, flower is not coffee,” he said, adding that a historical drought and high temperatures in the last months punished trees.

He said trees that still had a good amount of leafs will likely be able to convert the flowering into a nice fruit load, but the ones in poor condition will not. Melo said that only around mid-December will it be possible to know the flowering outcome.

“Rain may help to prevent excessive droppage of the small fruit pellets to the ground, but there is expected to be some loss even if conditions improve,” said Judith Ganes, president at commodities analyst J.Ganes Consulting LLC.

She is touring Brazil coffee areas currently. Part of the small fruit pellets will be discarded by the trees for them to grow new leafs instead, said José Braz Matiello, a coffee researcher at Procafe Foundation.

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That will result, he said, in a crop 20% to 30% below potential in the areas that suffered the most with dryness.

Trees that were pruned last year or those that did not produce much in 2024 could have better results, said Adriano Rabelo, technical coordinator at Minasul co-op.