BENGALURU: Trading was cautious in most Asian currencies on Friday, while equities fell, ahead of a closely contested US election and a jobs report due later in the day for a view on the outlook for rates before the Federal Reserve meets next week.
Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris remain neck and neck in several polls, but some investors have been positioning for a Trump win, which has lifted the dollar and US Treasury yields and, in turn, pressured Asian currencies.
“A victory for Trump would likely hurt the outlook for Asian economies and FX via lower trade and investment, as well as the Fed potentially slowing the pace of rate cuts due to the inflationary consequences of Trump’s proposed economic policies (tariffs plus wider fiscal deficits),” analysts at MUFG wrote.
The Indonesian rupiah and Singapore dollar fell 0.3% each, while the Malaysian ringgit slipped 0.1% and was headed for its fifth straight weekly fall, its longest falling streak in a year.
Investors were awaiting US non-farm payrolls data due later in the day, a crucial metric to see how well the economy is performing ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting next week, for which a 25-basis-point cut is priced in.
The Fed is expected to further ease rates with two more quarter-percentage point reductions by end-year, providing some leeway to Asian central banks to cut rates. However, most Asian central banks will ease more slowly than the Fed over the coming year as their inflation remains broadly within targets and growth is still resilient, a Reuters poll showed.
Last month, the Bank of Korea, Bank of Thailand and Bank Indonesia cut rates by 25 basis points while the Philippine central bank reduced them by 50 basis points.
In stock markets, the broader MSCI index of international emerging markets equities was at a more than one-month low, in line with rest of Asia as Microsoft and Meta Platforms fell overnight after highlighting that growing artificial intelligence costs could hit their earnings.
Stocks in Taiwan fell as much as 2.6%, and were last down 0.2%, while South Korean shares dipped as much as 0.8%.
Shares in Jakarta were down 0.8% to their lowest level since Oct. 11. The country reported its inflation data for October, which showed core inflation had risen to its highest in over a year.
Elsewhere, stocks in Singapore dropped as much as 1% to hit their lowest since Sept. 11, while financial markets in the Philippines were closed for a holiday.