In October 2024, Pakistan’s oil marketing companies (OMCs) saw a significant boost in petroleum sales, reaching 1.49 million tons—the highest in 23 months. This was equivalent to an 18 percent year-over-year increase, which highlights growth in demand across key fuel categories, fueled by reduced prices and seasonal agricultural demand.

High-Speed Diesel (HSD) led the surge, with sales rising 22 percent year-on-year. The start of the Rabi crop season stimulated demand because HSD is crucial for farming equipment. Anti-smuggling measures and a decrease in HSD’s price further supported the boost in HSD sales. HSD sales for October 24 were also the highest in 23 months.

Motor Spirit (MS), commonly known as petrol, also experienced a 15 percent year-on-year increase on October 24. This growth came from a decline in petrol prices, which also lifted consumption. Improved mobility following the end of the monsoon season further contributed to this rise, signaling a return to normal transportation patterns.

Furnace Oil (FO), largely used in power generation, grew by 7.4 percent year-on-year in October-24, negating the ongoing trend of falling year-on-year monthly furnace oil sales over the past 29 months—barring July 24, when the fuel witnessed a growth of around 6 percent year-on-year. The yearly increase reflects slight, intermittent usage in power generation, likely prompted by system constraints, though FO continues to see limited usage compared to previous years.

Cumulatively, the first four months of FY24 (4MFY24) reported a modest 2 percent growth in overall petroleum product sales. HSD and MS were primary growth drivers, with volumes up by 5 and 4 percent year-on-year, respectively. In contrast, FO volumes dropped 33 percent year-on-year, aligning with the gradual pivot away from furnace oil-based power.

The combination of a recovering economy and a low base from FY 24 could lead to a moderate recovery in POL sales in FY 25.