PARIS: Drier weather has sped up sowing campaign in western Europe possibly allowing the continent to avoid a repeat of one of the worst harvests in decades seen this year, analysts said.
Field work has resumed in most parts of the bloc due to drier conditions in the last two weeks, and the trend is expected to continue in the coming 10 days, with warm conditions set to boost crop development.
Sowing delays have, however, already dented crop potential. “It won’t be a good year, that’s pretty much certain,” said Strategie Grains crop analyst Vincent Braak. In France, by far the European Union’s largest soft wheat producer, farmers had sown only 62% of the expected soft wheat area for by Monday, against 41% a week earlier, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday.
That compared with 65% by the same stage last year and a five-year average of 77%. “It has been complicated for farmers in many parts of Europe to find the optimal window for sowing because of the irregular rainfall, sometimes far too wet, sometimes far too dry,” Braak said.
Strategie Grains has not given detailed EU grain production forecasts for 2025, but Braak expects soft wheat output to be about 1% above the 10-year average, provided there are no hiccups before harvest. Soft wheat sowings would be 5% above the rain-hit crop last year at 21.45 million hectares.
Even with good weather conditions until harvest, he does not expect yields to be very good, citing poor implementation after sowing in some countries and revenue-hit farmers’ tendency to cut costs on crop protection and fertilisers.
GERMANY, POLAND AND UK ALSO WET
In Germany, which also experienced a wet September and early October, farmers still expected to sow all winter grains and rapeseed they had intended, with the soft wheat area remaining in an average range, an analyst said. “Overall, Germany is not experiencing the problems feared following rain in France, and overall German planting has progressed well,” he said. “There have been local difficulties, but not on the serious scale seen last year.”
He estimated that German farmers will sow about 2.7-2.8 million hectares of winter wheat for the 2025 crop, up from a rain-reduced 2.4 million hectares last season.