NEW YORK: US natural gas futures soared about 10% to a five-week high on Monday on a drop in daily output over the past few days and forecast for much cooler weather and more heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
That heating demand should cause utilities to start pulling gas out of storage in late November.
There is currently about 6% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Analysts projected utilities added more gas than normal into storage last week for a fourth week in a row for the first time since October 2022.
Prior to the last few weeks, storage injections had been smaller than usual for 14 weeks in a row because many producers have reduced drilling activities so far this year after average spot monthly prices at the US Henry benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March.
Prices have remained relatively low since then, dropping to a 23-year low for the month of October.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 27.6 cents, or 10.3%, to $2.945 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:52 a.m. EST (1552 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since Oct. 3.
The tremendous gain, which was only the biggest daily percentage increase since prices soared 21% on Oct. 30, cut the premium of futures for January over December to just 21 cents per mmBtu, the lowest since November 2022.
That jump in gas prices also boosted stock prices for several US gas producers, including a 6% increase for Antero Resources and 4% increases for EQT, Comstock Resources and Range Resources.
Even though gas futures have gained about 18% over the prior three weeks, speculators boosted their net short futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row last week to their highest since April, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report.
In the spot market, gas prices plunged to a 25-year low at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana and dropped into negative territory for a record 47th time at the Waha hub in West Texas.
Elsewhere, next-day gas prices at the Eastern Gas South hub in Pennsylvania fell about 20% to $1.00 per mmBtu, their lowest since October 2023.