LAUNCESTON: Asia’s imports of Russian crude oil and liquefied natural gas are set to log small declines this year and while coal had a bigger drop, there’s little evidence that Western sanctions are working well.

Russia has come to rely on Asia, the world’s biggest buyer of energy commodities, to soak up cargoes that are no longer able to be sold to buyers in Europe and elsewhere as a result of sanctions placed against Moscow in the wake of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

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China and India emerged as major purchasers of Russian crude, coal and LNG after the invasion, taking cargoes because of the discounts on offer.

This dynamic has largely continued in 2024, and while there is likely to be some small decrease in Asia’s imports of Russian energy commodities, it’s hard to say that this is because of sanctions or because of other factors, such as sluggish growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy.

Asia’s imports of seaborne crude from Russia, the world’s second-largest exporter, are on track to drop to 161.2 million metric tons in 2024, down from 170.6 million in 2023, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

In barrels per day (bpd) terms, Asia’s seaborne imports from Russia are likely to come in around 3.22 million bpd this year, down 5.6% or 190,000 bpd from the 3.41 million bpd in 2023.

The bulk of the decline is because China, the world’s biggest crude importer, saw arrivals from Russia drop 100,000 bpd to 1.24 million bpd in 2024.

South Korea was responsible for the other major decline in imports from Russia, which dropped from around 100,000 bpd in 2023 to just 29,000 bpd in 2024.

India, which now counts Russia as its top crude supplier, saw largely steady imports of 1.76 million bpd in 2024, down slightly from 1.79 million bpd in 2023.

LNG, Coal

Asia’s imports of Russian LNG are also likely to be lower in 2024 than the previous year, but only by a tiny 1.6%.

A total of 14.93 million tons of Russian LNG is likely to arrive in Asia this year, down from 15.17 million in 2023, according to Kpler data.

China is the major buyer of Russian LNG, with 6.65 million tons this year, up a touch from 6.63 million in 2023.

The other major importer is Japan, which buys Russian LNG as a result of an ownership stake in the Sakhalin-2 LNG project.

Japan’s imports of 5.47 million tons in 2024 are slightly down from the 5.90 million in 2023.

However, Japan’s imports of all grades of Russian coal did drop substantially in 2024, sliding 75% to 610,000 tons from 2.42 million 2023.

Overall, Asia’s imports of seaborne Russian coal dropped to 102.3 million tons, down 19.3% from the 126.8 million in 2023.

The decline was largely driven by China, with imports falling to 45.01 million tons in 2024 from 59.19 million in 2023.

This is likely a price-driven dynamic as China’s coal imports have risen strongly so far in 2024, with official customs data showing a 13.5% increase in the first 10 months of the year to 435.4 million tons.

Russian coal has to compete against overland supplies from Mongolia, as well as seaborne grades from Indonesia and Australia, with prices from the two biggest exporters of the fuel trending lower over the course of 2024.

Putting together Asia’s imports of Russian energy commodities and it’s clear that the decline in volumes in 2024 is small, and even the slightly larger drop for coal is explained by price competition, rather than by any sanctions measures.

It’s also likely that for crude oil, Russia has had to offer discounts in order to maintain volumes.

The question then becomes whether the discount was deep enough to cause Moscow any real pain from lost revenue.

The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.