GENEVA: After years of negotiations, Switzerland appears poised to approve a package of agreements on its relations with the European Union this week, though Swiss lawmakers and a likely referendum could still tank the deal.

“Today we have reached a stage where the two contracting parties believe it is time to blow the final whistle,” said Gilbert Casasus, a European studies professor at the University of Fribourg.

The result of that match, he said, “while not brilliant, has the advantage of satisfying both Bern and Brussels”.

Switzerland, which is not part of the EU, is seeking to “stabilise and develop” ties with its largest trading partner.

Those relations are currently governed by more than 120 agreements.

For nearly two decades, the two sides have been discussing the need to simplify and harmonise ties, but relations soured in 2021, when, without warning, Bern slammed the door on the negotiations.

The talks tentatively resumed in March, with both sides saying they hoped to conclude a deal by the end of the year, updating the existing bilateral agreements and concluding new ones on issues like electricity, health and food safety.

Reaching a deal would “enable Switzerland to maintain the current conditions, allowing its economy to access the European market, and to develop them in important areas”, the Swiss business federation Economiesuisse said.

Von der Leyen in Bern?

There had been fears that Switzerland’s efforts to secure an exemption to the EU’s cherished free movement of people between countries could make an agreement difficult.

But Swiss media, citing diplomatic sources, recently reported that this longtime sticking point and all other issues had been settled.

The only exception, according to reports, was the amount Switzerland should pay into the EU’s Cohesion Fund, which is aimed at reducing economic and social disparities in the bloc.

European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic this week described the efforts to “intensify” the talks.

“So far, some 200 negotiation meetings. The last are always the hardest. Let’s ensure the work pays off,” he said on X.

Swiss economy to grow 1.5% next year, government forecasts

A fresh round of discussions on Tuesday “took place in a very positive atmosphere”, a European diplomatic source said.

“Now that an agreement is in sight, we hope that Switzerland will be ready to go ahead. We believe we have reached what is a very delicate balance, and should be appreciated as such by all parties.”

While there have so far been no official announcements, media reports suggest that European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen is planning to come to Bern before Christmas, and that Switzerland is prepared to approve a deal before her arrival – and as early as Friday.

‘Sword of Damocles’

The Swiss Trade Union Federation (USS), the country’s largest union umbrella organisation, has meanwhile called for further negotiations, warning that the agreement as it currently stands risks hitting Swiss wages.

Reaching a deal that will stick remains an uphill battle, with any agreement forced to pass muster not only with Switzerland’s parliament but also with voters in a likely referendum.

The hard-right Swiss People’s Party (SVP), Switzerland’s largest party, is staunchly opposed to closer ties with the EU.

The SVP has warned that the agreement under discussion would “signify the total submission of Switzerland to the EU”, charging that it would require Bern to adopt European law and denouncing the planned creation of an “arbitration court” to settle any differences.

“It is grotesque,” SVP parliamentarian Magdalena Martullo-Blocher told the Le Temps daily, warning that the EU would fault Switzerland if it did not adopt European regulations.

And by accepting the creation of an arbitration court, “we will officially be authorising the EU to punish us”.

Casasus acknowledged the difficulties ahead.

“The signing of this agreement is only one step,” he said, estimating that the end point would not come until “2027 at the earliest… with the risk that by that date, the agreement will already be obsolete”.

A Swiss referendum, he warned, remained “the biggest sword of Damocles hanging over the fate of this agreement”.