PARIS: European Union production of soft wheat could rise 11% in 2025/26 in a rebound from a 12-year low this season when the harvest was slashed by repeated heavy rain, consultancy Strategie Grains said. In its first production forecasts for next season, the firm projected output of soft wheat, the EU’s main cereal crop, at 126.6 million metric tons, up from 114.2 million in 2024/25.

After forecasting last month a sharp recovery in soft wheat planting as a dry end to autumn helped field work, Strategie Grains said in its latest EU report that yields were also expected to rebound next year. “So far, growing conditions for winter wheat in the EU-27 have been good, in contrast to the situation in neighbouring Russia,” it said in a summary of its report, referring to poor early development for Russian crops.

The bigger expected EU crop should support higher EU soft wheat exports, which Strategie Grains projected at 29.3 million tons in 2025/26 compared with 23.8 million expected this season.

The firm’s 2024/25 soft wheat export outlook was down 1.4 million tons from last month and now at a six-year low, reflecting a lack of competitiveness for EU supplies and slow shipments so far this season, it said.

For barley, Strategie Grains projected 2025/26 production at 50.6 million tons, close to this year’s below-average crop of 50.3 million, with a drop in area expected to mostly offset a recovery in yields. Maize production should rise more strongly, with the 2025/26 crop initially seen at 59.6 million tons against 57.9 million this season, with better yields after drought losses in eastern Europe this year expected to outweigh a loss of area to winter cereals, the firm said.