The government and the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) have finally, after much toing and froing, come to an agreement to hold talks, with the Speaker National Assembly (NA) Ayaz Sadiq playing the role of conciliatory mediator. For both sides, the change appears more tactical than a sincere effort to bridge the yawning divide between their respective positions.

For the government, it avoids the potential public perception that it is seeking revenge for the travails its members suffered at the hands of the PTI when it was in power.

For the PTI, it may be considered the sobering conclusion that its hitherto militant stance has hit an immovable deadly (‘fire’) wall. The PTI has thus decided that it must try to use less militant tactics to stay alive while continuing to pursue its demands, first and foremost the release of Imran Khan, then the release of all its other members, and finally judicial commissions to examine the events of May 9, 2023 and November 26, 2024.

The backdrop appears to be the sentencing of 25 civilians by military courts (out of 105 cases referred for trial by military courts) to between two to 10 years imprisonment for involvement in the May 9, 2023 riots.

While the Supreme Court (SC) had earlier ruled against these trials, a seven-member Constitutional Bench established after the 26th Constitutional Amendment later permitted them, but provided the saving grace of allowing appeals against the military courts’ judgements.

More appears to be in the offing. Retired Lieutenant-General Faiz Hameed’s court martial is due any moment, which is likely to include his role in the May 9, 2023 riots. Imran Khan and Bushra Bibi’s conviction in the Al-Qadir Trust case is expected in January 2025.

Given signs that the establishment indicated on November 26, 2024 in Islamabad that it had finally lost patience with the PTI’s adventurous, violent, disruptive policy and had taken the gloves off, the PTI seems to have retreated to a seemingly more peaceful, open-to-dialogue avatar.

However, out of habit, it still cannot refrain from a threatening tone when asserting that if its demands are not met, it will launch its civil disobedience movement, starting with cutting off remittances from Pakistanis abroad, on which the country’s balance of payments is critically reliant.

Not unexpectedly, at the time of writing these lines, the first meeting between the two warring sides, presided over by NA Speaker Ayaz Sadiq, has taken place, with no tangible result worth mentioning so far. It would come as no surprise, given the gulf between the positions of either side, if this were fated to be the outcome of these talks, i.e., fruitless.

Meanwhile, Defence Minister Khwaja Asif, during his sojourn in London, has come out all guns blazing against Imran Khan and the PTI in an interview. The timing may be coincidental, but Khwaja Asif’s whaling into the latter helps explain why he, a senior leader of the incumbent Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), is not in the negotiating committee of the government.

The redoubtable Khwaja has renewed allegations of financial corruption worth trillions of rupees against Imran Khan, arguing that he broke all records of corruption that has been a fact of national life for the last 75 (77?) years. He referred to the impending verdict in the Pounds 190 million Al-Qadir Trust case and argued that the claims of PTI supporters that the money went into the SC’s account is untrue.

Instead, he continued, it went into Malik Riaz of Bahria Town fame’s account. Imran, Khwaja Asif asserted, ‘obliged’ Malik Riaz in return for 400 acres of land and a position for Imran Khan and Bushra Bibi on the board of the Al-Qadir Trust University.

Whether Khwaja Asif’s assertions are true or not, the smell of rotten fish in this instance is hard to ignore. Khwaja Asif blames the judiciary for the delay in punishing the May 9, 2023 rioters (hence the recourse to military courts, courtesy the Constitutional Bench?).

Last but not least, the fiery Khwaja concludes that now there will be no repeat of the May 9, 2023 riots, even if Imran Khan is sentenced in one or more of the cases against him. Ironically though, Khwaja Asif lays the accusation at Imran Khan’s door that he was a product of the establishment, which casts one’s mind back to the origins of the PML-N. In this hamaam, not many are clothed I am afraid.

While these developments have our attention, it is not without importance that international and Pakistani human rights organisations have condemned the military trials as unfair, unjust, violating the accused’s inherent right to an open, transparent, law-adhering process. But even more ominous, the European Union (EU) has expressed concern over the sentencing of the 25 civilians by a military court, stating that these verdicts are inconsistent with Pakistan’s undertaken obligations under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). Article 14 of ICCPR lays down that every person is entitled to a fair and public trial in a court that is independent, impartial and competent, and has the right to adequate and effective legal representation.

Violation of Pakistan’s commitments in this regard, the EU argues, could threaten Pakistan’s continuing to profit from the GSP+ that provides zero duties on Pakistani exports for 66 percent of tariff lines. This could imply the loss of EUR 5.4 billion (Rs 1.2 trillion) exports from Pakistan to the EU.

The road to hell is often paved with ‘good’ intentions.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024