Pakistan is facing a natural gas shortfall of two Billion Cubic Feet (BCF) per day, as current demand exceeds 6 BCF against the available production of 4 BCF, an official told Business Recorder on Friday. The sources said the country will face severe gas crisis in winter because of massive surge in demand for Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for vehicles, politically recommended domestic gas connections and politically influenced supply of gas to different sectors.
"I know the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources will come under severe criticism in December, January and February when there will be no gas for industry, but we have to distribute the available quantity of gas judiciously," said an official of the Petroleum Ministry.
Official documents showed that the average gas demand-supply, excluding imports, is projected as follows: On SNGPL system in 2011-12 supply is 2, 110 mmcfd, against demand of 3,326 mmcfd, showing a shortfall of 1,216 mmcfd. In 2012-13- supply will be 2,180 mmcfd, against demand of 3,492 mmcfd, indicating a shortfall of 1,312. In the year 2013-14- supply is expected to be 2,193 mmcfd, against demand of 3,638 mmcfd, depicting shortfall of 1,445 mmcfd. In 2014-15 supply will be around 1,886 mmcfd as compared to demand of 3,558 mmcfd, showing a gap of 1,872 mmcfd. In 2015-16, shortfall will be 2,092 mmcfd as supply will stand at 1,796 mmcfd against a demand of 3,888 mmcfd. In 2016-17, supply will be 1,499 mmcfd against a demand of 4,015, showing a shortfall of 2,516 mmcfd and supply in 2017-18 will be 1,337 mmcfd against a demand 2,811 mmcfd.
These projections indicate that in 2014-15, SNGPL system will be facing a shortfall of 1,872 mmcfd. On SSGCL system in 2011-12, supply-1131 mmcfd-demand- 1411 mmcfd- shortfall- 280 mmcfd. In 2012-13, supply 1,285 mmcfd-demand- 1,485 mmcfd- shortfall-200 mmcfd. In 2013-14, gas supply-1,211 mmcfd-demand-1,536 mmcfd and shortfall- 325 mmcfd
Project Manager of the Consumer Rights Association of Pakistan (CRCP) Asif Masood said that Pakistan will face a shortfall of gas supply of 6.47 BCF by 2020. An energy sector analyst said that in the coming months, hectic lobbying will be witnessed especially by All Pakistan Textile Manufacturers Association (APTMA), power sector, and CNG sector. According to the Petroleum Ministry projections gas reserves in Sui will be depleted by 2022, as gas production from Sui Gas field has been decreasing by 5 percent annually. Gas reserves were discovered in Sui, Balochistan, in 1952.