BEIJING: China’s soybean imports from the United States dropped 5.7% in 2024 from the previous year and were replaced by Brazilian and Argentine shipments, as fears of a renewed Sino-US trade war further hammered the US market share to under a quarter.
China imported a record 105.03 million metric tons of the oilseed in 2024 ahead of the inauguration of President Donald Trump, whose threats of blanket 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods sparked concerns over disruptions to agriculture trade.
Total shipments from the US fell to 22.13 million tons while arrivals from Brazil rose 6.7% to 74.65 million tons, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs on Monday.
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US shipments to China, however, have surged since April and accelerated in the past few months as traders prepare for a potential halt to soybean trade between the two countries.
In December, soybean arrivals from the US were 10.6% higher than a year earlier at 4.25 million tons while imports from Brazil fell 41.1% to 2.94 million tons.
But Chinese soybean processors have secured nearly all of their cargoes from competitively priced Brazil for first-quarter shipment instead of US oilseeds, amid fears Trump will impose import tariffs.
“There is an expectation of changes in the global soybean trade pattern, which may affect the amount of US soybeans purchased by China in 2025 to a certain extent,” said Liu Jinlu, agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures.
Brazil remained China’s top soybean supplier in 2024 as Beijing expanded its effort to reduce its reliance on the US and deepen cooperation with “Belt and Road” countries to ensure food security.
Brazil’s soybean market share rose to 71%, while the US share shrank to 21%, according to Reuters calculations based on the data.
Imports from smaller supplier Argentina more than doubled to 4.1 million tons in 2024 from 1.95 million tons in 2023.
The large import volumes last year means China’s first-quarter soybean imports are likely to fall to 17.3-18.0 million tons, from 18.58 million tons a year ago, according to a Reuters survey.
Weak crush margins in China and ample inventory levels suggest that crushers will likely be more cautious in purchasing soybeans, as lower profitability from crushing operations deters aggressive buying, said Matthew Biggin, Commodities Analyst at BMI.