As Pakistan continues to develop its reliance on electricity to power industries, homes, and essential services continues to increase. Exacerbated by the changing climate and generation mix, modern power systems frequently operate near critical conditions all over the world, and more so in Pakistan.
Behind the flick of a switch lies a hidden challenge, which is the aging transmission infrastructure. The increasing share of intermittent energy sources and the complexity of the balancing mechanisms make the typical transmission system more rigid and challenge its ability to cope with failures.
In addition, the rapid change in weather conditions due to the looming dangers of climate change has highlighted the importance of power system resilience more than ever. Aggravated by the interconnected nature of power transmission systems, blackout events have an unprecedented societal and economic impact.
The 2023 Pakistan blackout was a power outage that occurred across the entirety of Pakistan. This was the second major grid breakdown in Pakistan in two years, and the second largest blackout in history. The phenomenon is not only limited to Pakistan.
In 2021 alone there were three notable events globally that raised concerns regarding the safety and resilience of large power systems: the catastrophic Texas blackout, and the separations of the European synchronous area in January and July.
These events had a pronounced economic impact and disrupted the lives of millions of people. Cascading failures are often identified as the primary initiating mechanism for widespread blackouts and one of the biggest threats faced by the power system.
National Transmission & Dispatch Company’s (NTDC’s) System Needs Assessment Report states that the major challenges faced by Pakistan’s transmission network is the aging infrastructure, lack of demand forecasting and network monitoring software. A customized solution is required to better serve the complex nature of Pakistan’s electricity infrastructure.
Pakistan’s energy mix consists of dispatchable and non-dispatchable sources. Dispatchable resources are those that provide electricity when required; the grid operators can control their output levels for, e.g., fossil fuel power plants, nuclear power plants, etc, as they work on a controlled mechanism of supplying electricity.
Non-dispatchable resources are power generation sources that cannot be controlled or scheduled by grid operators such as energy generated from renewable sources. The resources are primarily controlled by external factors such as weather conditions; for example, wind power and solar power.
Due to increasing energy demand and cost of imported fuel increasing at an insurmountable rate, more renewable energy projects are coming up in Pakistan as well. These projects could potentially become a lifeline for people in the shape of affordable electricity.
In a very recent report circulating on Bloomberg, K-Electric, the only private power utility in Pakistan, announced to double the country’s renewable energy mix by 2030 with its alternate energy ambitions. As critical as it is to push for sustainable energy sources, it is also important to realize that the gird will keep on operating as the backbone of the entire power sector.
Without tangible upkeep in the form of maintenance, investment and improvement, the grid will be exposed to failure and can be destructive for the sustainability of the overall sector. For instance, with the unavailability of a forecasting tool, the addition of non-dispatchable renewable resources in the gird can leave grid operators in a fix as they won’t be able to efficiently utilize the generation from renewable sources.
Commercially available software like “Power Factory”, “ETAP”, etc., are providing network modelling capabilities to utilities to help them incorporate non-dispatchable loads in the grid whilst maintaining grid stability. These tools also offer advanced simulation and analysis features, enabling utilities to optimize grid performance and plan for future expansions effectively.
Transmission Network Service Providers also rely on Energy Management Systems (EMS) to get a better visualization of the electrical network.
One of the major reasons for the historical Northeastern blackout in the USA in 2003 was the lack of situational awareness due to the absence of real time visibility and understanding of the grid conditions by the operators. This was mainly due to the use of outdated monitoring systems, which were not able to detect critical changes in the power flow. Transmission Network Service Providers in such situations rely on Energy Management Systems (EMS) to get a better visualization of the electrical network.
It is worthwhile to note that K-Electric in its Investment Plan 2030 discussed the deployment of an Advanced Distribution Management System, which falls under the category of EMS, on its distribution network as well. When deployed, KE will become the only utility with an EMS system installed on its transmission and distribution network.
NTDC is in the process of installing optical ground wires and telecommunication equipment in grid stations for the SCADA-III up-gradation project that will also provide EMS functionalities to the national transmission network.
By harnessing data from EMS and simulations, utilities can plan network upgrades ensuring minimum downtime. One crucial aspect that the TNSP in Pakistan needs to focus on is the reduction of fault current on its lines, which occurs because of to the addition of renewable energy.
A lack of fault current leaves the grid prone to blackouts. Conducting a comprehensive network modelling can help identify segments of the network that will have low fault current. Once those areas have been identified the TNSP can then install synchronous condensers to rectify low fault currents.
Adding equipment like synchronous condensers to the grid is CAPEX heavy, and if budget constraints are an issue, then the TNSP can explore low-cost options that reduce network congestion and optimizes asset utilization. One of the options for this is called “dynamic line ratings” where a small weather station is installed near or on a selected segment of transmission line and if the weather conditions are favourable the line can be easily overloaded, i.e., the line can carry more electricity when the temperatures are cooler or if there is sufficient wind speed. Implementing DLR can also reduce instances where renewable energy needs to be curtailed due to network congestion.
Pakistan’s electricity transmission infrastructure is due for a massive upgrade, equipment to enhance reliability need to be added to the grid.
Like the UK, Pakistan can also encourage private investors to invest in installing synchronous condensers to improve grid reliability. Power plants (synchronous generators) that have a low economic merit order should be encouraged to convert their systems to synchronous condensers so that they can support the grid instead of sitting idle. Power regulator, NEPRA, should develop a tariff mechanism that can aide this transition.
If the TNSP does not act fast and does not take calculated measures, then frequent blackouts on the grid will be inevitable.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025