The Canadian dollar rebounded from a three-month low against its US counterpart in volatile trade on Friday, ending only slightly weaker as it tracked a modest bounce in equity and commodity markets following encouraging US economic data.
An increasingly upbeat view of the economy and jobs market drove US consumer sentiment to a more than five-year high in early November, while a jump in wholesale inventories suggested the economy grew more than initially estimated last quarter.
"It's somewhat of a disappointing bounce given the drastic decline in sentiment in the post-election period. That said, the Canadian dollar has weathered the storm admirably," said Adam Button, currency analyst at ForexLive in Montreal. By late afternoon, the currency was near break-even for the day, after comments by US President Barack Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner left investors little hope that a deal to avoid the "fiscal cliff" was on the horizon.
Financial markets fear that the $600 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax rises set to begin in January, unless an agreement is reached on addressing the budget deficit, will drive the United States back into recession. The Canadian dollar ended the North American session at C$1.0013 versus the US dollar, or 99.87 US cents, slightly softer than Thursday's finish at C$1.0004 to the US dollar, or $0.9996. The currency ended the week down 0.6 percent.
Earlier, the currency slipped to C$1.0034, or 99.66 US cents, its lowest level since August 3. Analysts said C$1.0040 was the next significant level of resistance for the US dollar versus Canada's. The Canadian dollar was outperforming other major currencies, including the euro, which slipped near a one-week low.
Weighing against the euro was talk about Europe's crisis extending its reach to France and Germany. Investors were wary, too, before a Greek parliament vote on Sunday on its 2013 budget. The budget must be passed to unlock a further tranche of international aid. "For Canada, it's more a story of there hasn't been any specific domestic news that has hurt us," said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank.
Even better-than-expected Chinese economic data for October, which pointed to a modest rebound in the world's second largest economy, was largely overlooked. Looking to next week, analysts expect talk about the US fiscal cliff to continue to drive headlines and market direction. Trading is expected to be very quiet on Monday with bond markets closed for Remembrance Day in Canada and Veterans Day in the United States. Forex and stock markets will remain open.
The price of Canadian government debt reversed earlier gains and eased across the curve, underperforming US Treasuries. The two-year government-of-Canada bond was down 3 Canadian cents to yield 1.085 percent, while the benchmark 10-year bond was off 3 Canadian cents to yield 1.715 percent.