The International Grains Council on Thursday cut its forecast for global wheat production in 2012/13, widening an anticipated year-on-year decline, but noted high prices should trigger a rise in plantings for the following season. The IGC, in a monthly report, forecast a global wheat crop of 654 million tonnes in 2012/13, down one million tonnes from its previous estimate and now 41 million below the prior season after drought cut output in the Black Sea region.
The latest cut reflected minor revisions for Australia (21.5 million tonnes from 22.0 million) and the European Union (130.3 million from 130.6 million). Prices of wheat have risen by around one-third since the beginning of this year buoyed by lower production in the former Soviet Union as well as drought in the US which cut maize production and tightened global grain stocks.
"Given high prices, the total wheat harvested area for 2013/14 is set to increase by 2 percent, although conditions for parts of the US are a concern," the IGC said. In the US Plains, hard red winter wheat is suffering, entering its dormancy period in historically bad condition and raising concerns about yield prospects.
World trade in wheat in 2012/13 was seen at 134 million tonnes, up 2 million from last month's projection but still well below the prior season's 146 million tonnes. "Stronger than anticipated early season imports by China and Iran contribute to a 2 million tonne increase in the world trade forecast but it is still sharply lower than last season," the IGC said.
Iran's wheat imports were seen at 2.0 million tonnes in 2012/13, up from a previous estimate of 1.5 million but still below the prior season's 2.2 million. The IGC also raised its forecast for Iran's maize (corn) imports to 3.9 million, up from a previous forecast of 3.6 million and the previous season's 3.7 million.
Global maize production in 2012/13 was left unchanged at 830 million tonnes, well below the prior season's 876 million. "The northern hemisphere harvest is almost complete, with sharp year-on-year declines in the US, Ukraine and the EU but output in the southern hemisphere is still expected to reach a new record," the IGC said. Global maize ending stocks for 2012/13 were cut by 1 million tonnes of 116 million, down from the prior season's 134 million.