Grim scenarios - II

06 Dec, 2012

In the context of prevailing state of affairs, the question being frequently asked is: whether Pakistan will become Asia's Somalia?
The fact of the matter and ground reality, considering all the relevant parameters and obtaining ground realities, Pakistan has already become "Asia's Somalia" with the systematic ongoing organised and rampant corruption, national economy in a state of free-fall, absence of writ of the state, raging terrorism, insurgencies, spread of anarchy, complete breakdown of law and order, dysfunctional State institutions and a paralysed system of governance. Candidly speaking, these all, indeed, are the elements that too had contributed and thus led to the collapse of Somalia into a failed state. Today, Pakistan is no different than Somalia.
In the opinion of some political analysts, Pakistan will not become Asia's Somalia for as long as Pakistan army's chain of command remains intact. The question here is, as to how long the chain of command of a 620,000 large, strong, disciplined organised force of a country will remain intact with the national economy in tatters with empty coffers, writ of state nowhere to be seen, non-existent rule of law and the nation in a complete state of disarray, chaos and confusion, unsure of its future? How will the 620,000 strong army be maintained in battle ready mode, fed, paid timely and continue to keep itself equipped adequately to thwart any enemy attack on county's geographical sovereignty, with an almost bankrupt national exchequer, reduced revenue generation and dwindling foreign exchange reserves, with a frantic run on the dollar and flight of capital?
The next question being asked is, "Can Pakistan become Asia's Yugoslavia?" The glaring fact is that Pakistan today, has all the ingredients to move in the direction of what is called, "Balkanisation" when viewed in the context of the active separatist movements in Balochistan, Sindh, (Sindhu Desh), the rampant parochialism, (Mohajir, Hazara and Seraiki Soba), the Pakhtunistan and the Durand Line quagmire that is not going to go away for a long time and lastly, Waziristan is already a separate entity, under the Taliban rule, a fact and reality that cannot be denied.
According to the assessment of some political pundits, Pakistan is unlikely to become Asia's Yugoslavia, as long as Pak Army's unit cohesion and its chain of command remains intact. All patriotic Pakistanis, without any shadow of doubt, are deeply and unflinchingly committed to Pak Army's unit cohesion and chain of command to remain intact, because that is where lies the very survival and salvation of the country. The question again here is as to how long the cohesion and chain of command will remain intact in a country with collapsing economy? If Pakistan's economy collapses, irreparably, so will be the unit cohesion. Unless a ruthless, massive, across-the-board, dynastical political cleansing operation is not undertaken to get rid of the corrupt and crooked politicians for good, Pakistan's survival as a viable entity will remain in a state of flux.

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