Malaysian palm oil futures rose to a one-week high on Thursday, drawing support from expectations of a bullish industry report and a lower palm oil inventory level, although gains were curbed by investor caution. Traders are looking ahead to Friday's US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, which is expected to trim its outlook for soybean supplies, according to a Reuters poll.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board's report on the country's February inventory level due on Monday may also sway the market, with a Reuters survey of five plantation companies showing stocks may drop to a 6-month low on seasonal slowing output. But investor caution remained after leading analysts presented differing price forecasts for the year at the biggest annual meeting on the edible oil, which ended on Wednesday.
"The palm market is still undecided on which direction to go yet. Now we're all looking at the soy side and the USDA data tomorrow," said a Singapore-based trader with a global commodities house. The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 1.5 percent at 2,435 ringgit ($785) per tonne, slightly below its intraday high at 2,442 ringgit, a level unseen since February 27.
Total traded volume stood at 28,800 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots. Price forecasts from six speakers at the Bursa Malaysia palm oil conference in the Malaysian capital ranged from 1,800 to 3,200 ringgit, with the main focus on top analysts James Fry and Dorab Mistry.
Mistry was neutral on near-term prices, saying prices should range between 2,300 and 2,500 ringgit until the end of April but might fall after that, while a more bullish Fry expected prices to climb to 2,625 ringgit by mid-year on biodiesel demand. In competing vegetable oil markets, US soyoil for May delivery gained 0.1 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down 1 percent.