Copper prices dropped to a four-month low on Monday, mirroring a pullback in risk appetite across financial markets, as the euro zone's plan to part-fund a bailout of Cyprus by taxing bank deposits raised fears about the region's economic stability. Eurozone finance ministers demanded at the weekend that Cypriots pay up to 9.9 percent of their deposits as tax in exchange for a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) bailout.
LME benchmark three-month copper earlier fell to its lowest since November 9 at $7,545.75 a tonne, but later pared losses to close at $7,576 a tonne, down from a last bid of $7,751 on Friday. "Cyprus will impact metals. The repercussions haven't even been fully priced into forex and bond markets yet. The Cypriot parliament has to vote still, difficulties in Cyprus could spread. This is what markets are now pricing in after weeks of more settled conditions, or complacency arguably," said BNP Paribas analyst Stephen Briggs.
Also a concern, LME stocks rose 18,100 tonnes to 543,925 tonnes, their highest since February 2010. The copper market is expected to record a surplus this year, after many years of structural deficit, a factor that is expected to weigh on prices in the second half especially. The metal used in power and construction is trading 4.2 percent lower in the year to date.
"We believe the price slump suffered by base metals is exaggerated, and see the currently low prices as an attractive opportunity to buy," Commerzbank analysts said. Market participants in China, which consumes 40 percent of the world's copper, saw signs that the lower prices may encourage buying. A trader based in Shanghai said some buying interest was seen in China following the heavy price losses and a short-covering rally was possible.
"They will come back to buy on the cheap when the market stabilises tomorrow, assuming that is around the $7,600 level," the trader said. Hedge funds and money managers raised their net short position in copper to a fresh four-year high and added to their bullish bets in gold in the week to March 12, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. In other metals traded, zinc ended at $1,919 from a close of $1,954 on Friday, having earlier hit its lowest in almost four months at $1,912 a tonne. The global zinc market was in surplus by 40,000 tonnes in January, a monthly bulletin from Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed.
Aluminium ended at $1,936 from $1,965, having earlier hit its lowest in four months at $1,927.50 a tonne, while lead closed at $2,185 from $2,222, having earlier hit its lowest in nearly four months at $2,158.50 a tonne. The global lead market was in surplus by 3,000 tonnes in January, the ILZSG's monthly bulletin showed. Nickel ended at $16,605 from $16,900 on Friday, while tin ended at $23,100 from a close of $23,850.