The grain crop in Russia, one of the world's biggest wheat exporters, may be as low as 80 million tonnes this year, Deputy Agriculture Minister Ilya Shestakov was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency. "These are only forecasts to determine our proposals regarding our strategy on intervention purchases," he said, stressing that the figures were not an official forecast.
Shestakov added that if the grain crop reaches 80 million tonnes, exports are seen at 14 million tonnes. Under its basic scenario, the government targets a 2013 grain harvest of 95 million tonnes, in which case it may buy 5 million tonnes of grain on the domestic market to replenish stocks, a source familiar with the Agriculture Ministry's plan told Reuters. Exports are anticipated at 20 million tonnes.
In this case, state buying may start in August, he added. The more pessimistic scenario sees the harvest at 80 million tonnes, of which the government may buy about 3 million tonnes of grain in Russia's South to prevent it from being exported. In this case, state buying may start in July, the source added. Sovecon agriculture analysts said last week that Russia is likely to harvest between 84 million tonnes and 89 million tonnes of grain this year.