The International Grains Council on Thursday forecast that the world wheat harvested area would climb to a four-year high for the 2013/14 season, but global stocks would only rise modestly. The IGC, in a monthly update, forecast a rise in global wheat stocks of 3 million tonnes by the end of the 2013/14 season, which would only partially offset a decline of 20 million tonnes in 2012/13.
"Some increase in major exporters' stocks is likely, but the global 2013/14 carryover is expected to rise by a modest 3 million tonnes," the IGC said. Global wheat stocks are forecast to fall during the 2012/13 season by 20 million tonnes to 177 million with the decline driven by a sharp decline in production for Black Sea exporters Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
The IGC said a recovery in average yields should boost global wheat production by 4 percent in 2013/14 from the prior season's 656 million tonnes. A sharp rebound in US maize production was anticipated in 2013/14 with the IGC forecasting the world's top grower could boost production by as much as 30 percent, year-on-year, from a drought-affected 2012/13 harvest. The IGC estimates the US maize crop in 2012/13 at 274 million tonnes and a 30 percent rise would take production to around 356 million, comfortably surpassing the record 333 million tonnes harvested in 2009/10.