There's no denying that Imran Khan's bid to upset Nawaz Sharif's applecart on May 11, 2013 will, at the very least, make the election exciting. Piqued by the rising fortunes of Imran Khan's PTI, PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif has every reason to articulate his strategy correctly, astutely and skillfully, demonstrating a great deal of political expediency. And the state of vexation caused by a perceived slight or indignity or a feeling of wounded pride seems to have ended with a massive PML-N show at Mansehra where Nawaz has sought to prove that he still maintains a strong foothold in a largely non-Pushtoon Hazara belt in KP-his traditional stronghold until he himself alienated it through his decision to accept the change in the name of the then North West Frontier Province (NWFP).
The war-weary areas comprising FATA, PATA and Pushtoon districts of KP also underscore the need for him to articulate the right balancing act keeping in view the Afghanistan Endgame almost coinciding with 2013 general election. It increasingly appears that a great realisation seems to have dawned upon him, ie, if you play your cards right, you can get whatever you want and if you don't, you surely end up with something less than what you want.
He played a pretty good hand by deliberately dropping the matter with regard to the selection of one from among four names as caretaker prime minister in the lap of Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). The reason was simple: he just couldn't afford to pull Imran's punches over a real or perceived sinister deal or mukmuka (between PPP and PML-N). He therefore deprived Imran of further ammunition that the latter could effectively use against PML-N at PTI's another highly impressive show at Minar-e-Pakistan in Lahore on March 23.
That Imran is challenging Nawaz in the latter's own backyard is a reality that has led to hovering doubts over the twice elected prime minister's prospects to earn the unprecedented distinction of becoming prime minister for third time in the history of Pakistan. As far as PPP and PML-Q are concerned, these parties are not expected to pose any serious threat to PML-N in major parts of Punjab. Blighted by the factors of incumbency and woefully poor performance, PPP nurses not much hopes in all those districts of Punjab from where PML-N is expected to emerge successful in Election 2013. A beleaguered and moth-eaten PML-Q of the Chaudhrys of Gujrat too does not seem to be in a position to pose any serious threat to Nawaz even in their own stronghold, Gujrat. In 2008 election, the Chaudhries managed to win only one (won by Chaudhry Wajahat Hussain) out of four National Assembly seats of Gujrat. Three seats were bagged by PPPP's Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar, Qamar-uz-Zaman Kaira and PML-N's Jamil Malik. It is only PTI which seems to be in a position to cause PML-N some serious trouble in Punjab and drastically dampen its newly revived chances in KP by spoiling his plans.
While Sindh still looks reluctant to brook any Nawaz forays into its rural and urban districts mainly because of the near hegemony that PPP and MQM clearly enjoy across the province, a highly volatile Balochistan does offer him some legitimate hopes. His anti-Generals, if not anti-army, rhetoric will be his effective weapon to assuage, albeit partially, the Baloch secessionist sentiments worsened by the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti during General Musharraf's regime and an alarming increase in the number of missing persons during the rule of the outgoing PPP-led coalition government. The Hazaras, who have been subjected to a series of deadly sectarian attacks in recent months and years, are not a very significant player on the chessboard of Balochistan. They are expected to have no qualms over whether they too should be supportive to Nawaz's pitch. The reason: PML-N Punjab government fared better against growing sectarian threat than any other province, although it earned accusations of becoming a coalescing partner of anti-Shia militants. The Pushtoon areas of Balochistan where several forces, including Mahmood Khan Achakzai's PkMAP, compete for influence and power are not expected to cede space to either PPP or PML-N. But Nawaz stands better chances of finding post-election allies if not enduring partners in these less-alienated constituencies of Balochistan. In a nutshell, the electoral prospects of both PML-N and PPP are strongly linked to Imran's performance. President Zardari would find a much-desired opportunity to laugh-loudly and clearly- in the labyrinth of a massive Presidential complex in the capital, if PTI is able to cause some grievous harm to PML-N in order to pave the way for PPP to make the fourth comeback after two tenures of Benazir Bhutto and one led by Gilani-Raja. No doubt, Imran's fortunes are deeply embedded in Nawaz's electoral landscape in Punjab. The non-Pushtoon areas of KP where Nawaz is seeking to restore his tarnished image are not a less arduous task for him because the space that he surrendered over the issue of change in province's name was partly but arguably exclusively occupied by Imran. Even in the case of southern Punjab, PML-N appears to be profoundly vulnerable to PTI's "juggernaut" in at least half of that proposed province. As far as PPP is concerned, it seems to have insulated itself against any potent threat following its decision to successfully create the bogey of division of Punjab by creating fear and alarm particularly among the residents of non-Seraiki-speaking districts of Punjab-the areas that are traditionally producing the army elite.
The writer is newspaper's News Editor (email: news.editor@br-mail.com).This is the second of a multi-part series Election Outlook. Its first part "A compromise situation?" http://www.brecorder.com/top-stories/0/1167158/carried by the newspaper on March 25, 2013. The third part "Musharraf: A spanner in the election works?" of this series will be carried shortly.