Crown firms, market awaits central bank comments

29 Mar, 2018

The CNB, which has raised interest rates three times since August last year, is expected to keep them on hold on Thursday in its decision due at 1100 GMT.

Comments from CNB Governor Jiri Rusnok starting from 1215 GMT will be closely watched as a retreat in inflation rates in most of the region in February has triggered some expectations for a shift towards a less hawkish rhetoric.

Expectations for further monetary tightening, along with the region's robust wage and output growth, have been a key factor to buoy the crown.

Foreign investors poured funds worth tens of billions of euros into crown assets before the CNB removed a cap on the currency a year ago, letting it firm beyond 27 against the euro.

The Czech currency traded at 25.435 to the euro at 0824 GMT, less than 0.1 percent firmer, while the forint , the zloty and the leu eased slightly.

The currency has been hovering around 25.435 since the publication of February inflation figures in the region.

The proportion of foreigners' holding Czech state domestic bonds was almost steady at 37.72 percent in February according to fresh figures, which showed they do not rush to close their positions.

"We estimate two more (interest rate) hikes this year due to insufficient strengthening of the Czech koruna (crown)," Raiffeisen analyst Milan Frydrych said in a note, adding though that he did not expect the CNB to change its stance at the meeting.

Czech government bonds mostly moved sideways.

Hungarian bonds also took a breath after firming in the past two days which left their yield curve flatter.

The government bi-weekly government bond auctions, however, are expected to draw solid demand.

"The shorter maturities on offer are likely to get absorbed by bank books, while the long one, the 2039/A is rare on offer, and investors like pension funds will queue up for it," one Budapest-based fixed income trader said.

Hungary's and Poland's 10-year government bond yields are expected to rise by 40-50 basis points in the next 12 months, tracking Bunds and US yields, a Reuters poll of 17 analysts showed on Thursday.

Copyright Reuters, 2018
 

 

 

 

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