ICE cotton gained on Thursday after a drop to technical support levels prompted buying and as strong weekly US export numbers indicated solid demand for fibre even as the momentum of a speculator-driven price rally continued to cool. The most-active July cotton contract on ICE Futures US gained 0.28 cent, or 0.3 percent, to settle at 83.23 cents per pound.
The spot May contract closed up 0.23 cent, or 0.3 percent, at 81.33 cents a lb, as it headed into expiry on May 8. Spot prices have tumbled more than 13 percent from one-year high of 93.93 cents a lb touched last month during a speculator-driven rally that lifted prices to a first-quarter gain of 18 percent.
The rally followed two years of losses as cotton saw market share eroded by lower-priced, synthetic fibres and global inventories grew. Cotton now has limited support in the range of 82 cents to 82.50 cents, dealers said. "We have support around this level, we're a little oversold and we're seeing a little turn-around as we hold above yesterday's lows," said Boyd Cruel, softs analyst for Vision Financial Markets in Chicago. On Wednesday, the second-month contract sank as low as 82.84 cents a lb.
Prices also found support in weekly export data from the US Agriculture Department on Thursday that showed sales in the week ending April 18 were up 13 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior four-week average. "The export numbers were very solid," said Jordan Lea, chairman and co-owner of Eastern Trading in South Carolina.
That solid demand and a sense of tightening global supplies outside of China had been underpinning the rally earlier this year, dealers have said. While the world is expected to see record global inventories by the end of the crop year through July, more than half are expected to become part of China's stocks, considered unavailable to the global marketplace.
Beijing began building its reserves in 2011, paying above global prices to support farmers. The world's top textile market is expected to maintain its stockpiling program this year. Speculators boosted their long positions in cotton futures and options to a five-year high last month, but have since slashed their bullish stance, taking the momentum out of the cotton's upswing. "The long and short of it is that the specs are leaving the building," Lea said.
Open interest totalled 165,768 contracts on Wednesday, ICE data showed, having fallen each of the last nine sessions. In that time alone, the most-active contract has fallen nearly 5 percent. Certified stocks totalled 507,272 bales on Wednesday, ICE data showed, continuing their climb to the highest levels since June 2010.