Tribal and feudal aristocrats still hold sway over the rural population of Sindh which continues to live in subjugation without benefiting from the democratic dispensation. For the uneducated tillers, party or no party, it is the local chieftain who matters. Personalities and not the party counts.
He is their mentor, guide and saviour. They look up to him in their joys and sorrows as their deliverer. A reflection of the dominance of landed aristocracy could be seen in several rural Sindh constituencies. Take for instance the case of Tando Allahyar, Matiari and Tando Mohammad Khan districts, particularly the last two where influential Syeds and Makhdooms enjoy total dominance.
From father to son and down the line these areas have remained under the dominance of feudal lords. That also explains why PPPP has not engaged itself in show of street force and effective electioneering unlike other political parties, though they have also, during these elections, operated in low key. Party tickets have been awarded, much to the disenchantment of 'jiyalas' to clear winners.
These three districts were part of old Hyderabad district until 2005 when during Dr Arbab Ghulam Rahim's tenure as Chief Minister the three places were awarded district status. Each of these three districts has one national assembly and two provincial assembly seats. Whereas no contest is seen in Matiari where all the three seats would be captured by PPPP, ie Makhdooms of Hala, in Tando Mohammad Khan although the Syeds have an upper hand, the 10-party supported candidates may take away some votes.
In Tando Allahyar constituencies, one National Assembly and two provincial assembly seats, the situation looks a bit different. Here PPPP's Abdul Sattar Bachani would be given a tough time by Raheela Magsi, former two-time district Nazima of Tando Allahyar. Having served the district for eight years she has a say here. Similarly on one of the two provincial assembly seats again Raheela Magsi appears all set to give a tough time to PPPP's Syed Zia Abbas Rizvi. On the other provincial assembly seat PPPP's Imdad Pitafi may not have an easy sailing against Dr Irfan Gul Magsi, brother of Raheela, he also remained provincial minister in the cabinet of Arbab Rahim.
We would analyse Matiari district first where Makhdooms of Hala have strong political grip. Headed by Makhdoom Amin Fahim former federal minister for commerce, the family is controlling all the affairs of district. There are three assembly seats, including one National Assembly and two of provincial assembly which were swept by the PPPP candidates but nominees of Makhdoom Amin Fahim in 2008 elections.
Makhdoom Amin Fahim himself was MNA, his son Makhdoom Jamil-u-Zaman was MPA and Syed Pir Amir Ali Shah was another MPA from Matiari in last assemblies. PPPP has changed only one face on a provincial assembly seat where Makhdoom Rafiquz Zaman, the brother of Makhdoom Amin Fahim and former district Nazim of Hyderabad, has replaced Syed Pir Amir Ali Shah.
While on two other seats, Makhdoom Amin Fahim for MNA and his son Makhdoom Jamil-u-Zaman for MPA are contesting elections and their poll campaigns are continued. On NA-218: Makhdoom Amin Fahim has been fielded by the PPPP. He is facing Abdul Razzaq Memon of PML-F who is fully supported by the 10-party-alliance. Local political observers are claiming that Makhdoom Amin Fahim can easily win the seat as he has a large following in the constituency.
Makhdoom Amin Fahim is the head of Sarwari Jamaat, a spiritual group claiming the support hundreds of thousands of followers of Makhdoom Talibul Maula. PS-43 (Matiari/Old Hyderabad-I): Makhdoom Jamiluz Zaman is facing party's senior Jiyala Nazir Ahmed Rahu who recently quit PPPP and joined PML-F. Rahu is also fully supported by the 10-party alliance.
Nazir Rahu was promised for ticket in this elections but he was refused so that he joined PML-F and got ticket of ten-party-alliance in front of Makhdoom Jamiluz Zaman, local observers said. They claimed that although, Rahu has good reputation and say in area but he can receive defeat with the hands of Makhdoom Jamil as Makhdoom family has large following in the district.
PS-44 (Matiari cum Hyderabad/ Old Hyderabad-II): Obliging the request of Asif Ali Zardari, Makhdoom Rafiq has accept the ticket of PPPP who was angry with leadership over some issues, sources inside PPPP claimed. In last elections, PPPP's Syed Pir Amir Ali Shah became the MPA and now Rafiq-u-Zaman si facing his natural rival Mohammad Ali Shah Jamot of PML-F who has full support of ten-party alliance as well.
Local political observers claimed that this is also a seat of Makhdoom family and Jamot cannot defeat Makhdoom so PPPP would also easily win this seat. The second district is Tando Mohammad Khan where PPPP wields considerable influence as former federal minister Naveed Qamar is heading party in this district of Sindh.
NA-222: Naveed Qamar himself is party candidate, he also won two elections from this seat in the past and PML-F's Pir Sajad Jan Sarhandi who has support of ten-party alliance is giving him tough time. Political observers believe that although Naveed Qamar is a favourite candidate, but Pir Sajad also has a good say in the area. He bagged more than 15,000 votes during the 2008 elections.
PS-53 (Tando Mohammad Khan cum Hyderabad-I): PPPP can loose this seat as Syed Aijaz Ahmed Shah cousin of Waheeda Shah, wife of Syed Mahsin Shah Bukhari (late) former MPA, has not good say in the area, local political observers claimed. PML-F's Mir Inayat Talpur is seen giving a tough time to Shah as Talpur has also support of ten-party-alliance. PS-54 (Tando Mohammad Khan cum Badin): PPPP has fielded Abdul Karim Soomro again on this seat while he is facing Rahiman Bhatti of Conservative Party, Dr Ahmed Noonari STP and Pir Ahmed Saeed Jan Sarhandi, independent candidate.
One-to-one competition would be emerged between PPPP's Abdul Karim Soomro and Pir Ahmed Saeed Jan Sarhandi, independent candidate, claimed local observers. The third district which came under an analysis is TandoAllahyar where PPPP is facing hard time as Magsi sister and brother of PML-N and supported by ten-party-alliance are giving tough competition to PPPP nominees.
Raheela Magsi and Irfan Gul Magsi wield great influence on the masses in this constituency. Raheela remained two-time district Nazima of TandoAllahyar while Irfan remained an MPA and minister for a few months in the cabinet of Dr Arbab Ghulam Rahim. NA-223: PPPP heavyweight Abdul Sattar Bachani is in the fray himself. In 2008, his wife, Shamshad Sattar Bachnai, was elected an MNA.
Raheela Magsi is a major rival of Bachani on this seat. PS-51 (TandoAllahyar cum Matiari-I): Syed Ali Nawaz Shah Rizvi was PPPP's MPA from this seat but now face has been changed and young Syed Zia Abbas Rizvi is the candidate who is facing Dr Irfan Gul Magsi. PS-52 (TandoAllahyar cum Matiari-II): PPPP has allocated ticket to Imdad Pitafi again and he is facing Raheela Magsi. Local observers believe that PPPP may loose this provincial assembly seat because of Pitafi's inaction over the past five years.