A tough competition is expected between Chaudhry Pervez Elahi of PML-Q and PML-N candidate Chaudhry Mubashir Hussain on a National Assembly seat - NA-105 in home constituency of Chaudhrys of Gujrat while for two provincial seats - PP-110 and PP-111 - the real battle will be between PTI and PML-N.
A survey by Business Recorder showed that Chaudhry Pervez Elahi of Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) was clearly in the lead due to uplift schemes in the constituency during his stint as chief minister Punjab. Chaudhry Mubashir, a cousin of the Chaudhys, has a track record of changing political loyalties. He was in the PML-Q and abandoned it to join Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). When Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerged as a popular political party after its mammoth Lahore rally, he joined the bandwagon of Imran Khan but was denied a ticket and decided to return to the PML-N fold where he managed to get a ticket.
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and PML-Q failed to agree on a seat adjustment in NA-105 and both the parties have fielded their own candidates, making competition tough. NA-105 Gujarat-II is usually a heavily contested seat with a tough battle between PML-Q and PPP. But this time PML-Q candidate on National Assembly seat has a relatively stronger position compared to PPP candidate Chaudhary Ahmed Mukhtar. Background interviews with people of the area revealed that the position of Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar of PPP is quite weak as compared to candidates of PML-Q, PML-N and PTI.
According to an anecdotal survey conducted by Business Recorder the constituents are unhappy with Chaudhary Mukhtar for not doing any thing for them while he was a federal minister and for not launching any mega development project in the area. He also reportedly avoided visiting his constituency during the past five years while occupying senior ministerial slots.
In the past, voting in rural areas of NA-105, as opposed to urban areas, was on the basis of 'baradarism' for example Jatt, Gujjar, Arain, Kashmiri, etc and both PPP and Chaudhary candidates relied on baradarism in various villages and town for votes. This constituency is dominated by Jutt, Gujjar, Warraich and Butt clans and is divided between Chaudhry and anti-Chaudhry votes. NA-105 is dominated by the PML-Q and is the home town of PML-Q leaders Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Chaudhry Pervez Elahi who have completed development projects including the establishment of Gujarat University and widening and construction of different roads. This constituency covers most of the urban areas and baradari is not a major factor in this constituency and has been a stronghold of Chaudhry brothers.
Chaudhry Pervez Elahi has started an intensive door-to-door campaign in the area and a large number of notables, including former PML-N senior vice president from Gujarat and others have joined PML-Q. Chaudhry brothers have focused their campaign in rural areas. Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar is not holding public gatherings and has only focused on corner meetings. According to the survey the position of Al-Haj Muhammad Gondal of PTI is stronger as compared to PPP candidate Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar. Imran Khan was scheduled to address a public gathering on May 8 which could have been a game changer but was unable due to his injuries.
NA-105 Gujrat-II comprises of two provincial assembly seats - PP-110 and PP-111 - with a total of 332,332 registered voters with four major contestants: Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, PML-Q, Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar, PPPP, Chaudhry Mubashir Hussain, PML-N and Al-Haj Muhammad Gondal, PTI.
The PPP's candidates are Tahir Mehmood Warrach from PP-110, Zahid Hussain Saleemi from PP-111. PML-Q's candidates are Chaudhry Moonis Elahi, elder son of Pervaiz Elahi, from PP-110, and Mian Imran Masood relative of Chaudhrys from PP-111. PML-N candidates are Chaudhry Raza Matta from PP-110 and Haji Imran Zafar from PP-111; while PTI candidates are Saleem Sarwar Jorra, son of former PPP MPA Chaudhry Sarwar Jorra and Chaudhry Ifitkhar Ahmed Samaa.
According to the survey, PTI's Saleem Sarwar Jorra, son of former MPA Chaudhry Sarwar Jorra, from PP-11 is leading the polls while a tough competition is expected between PTI and PML-N candidates on provincial seats. The position of PPP candidates is weak on provincial seats. There is a neck-and-neck competition between Chaudhry Moonis Elahi of PML-Q and Raza Matta of PML-N from PP-110. Similarly, a tough competition is also expected between Imran Zafar of PML-N and Saleem Sarwar Jorra of PTI in PP-111.